Global jet fuel shortfall implies stagflationary shock, hitting GDP and levered systems. Freight inflation looms. US swap lines signal dollar fragility. Bessant's Treasury trade risks instability if Hormuz doesn't reopen. Iran conflict escalates oil supply risk. Gold benefits from inflation/printing, Bitcoin only on major dip or 'nuclear printing'. Equities misprice stagflation risk; stay conservative: cash, T-bills, gold.
Yields
NDX
Oil
Metals
USD
stagflationary environment cautious down
FFTT
7.0
Management Consulting
Luke Gromen 8.0
Management Consulting
Luke Gromen 8.0
4/24/2026 8:30:04 PM
dxy
The speaker discusses the US opening swap lines to keep allies inside the dollar tent, suggesting concern about dollar dominance. The stagflationary scenario and potential for 'nuclear printing' would weaken the dollar.
metals
Gold is good in deflation... The threat of default or printing, that's why gold is good in deflation.
| 2/2/2026 8:00:26 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +4.98% | +7.47% |
| 1/12/2026 8:00:54 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -3.02% | -4.54% |
| 11/14/2025 8:00:54 PM | long term sharp up | 60 days later | +33.85% | +50.78% |
| 10/24/2025 8:00:10 PM | long term sharp up | 60 days later | +30.90% | +46.35% |
ndx
Stagflation is really bad for earnings multiple... Equities at their current prices... are betting that we won't get to a stagflationary environment... the market is grossly mispricing that risk.
| 2/2/2026 8:00:26 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | -2.49% | +2.49% |
wti
The speaker discusses a global jet fuel shortfall, a US naval blockade against Iran that could damage oil fields, and a game of chicken with Iran. These factors point to near-term oil supply disruption and upward price pressure.
yields
The speaker warns that if Hormuz does not reopen, Bessant's trade will result in 'much higher inflation and Treasury market instability.' Higher inflation typically pushes yields up.
