Inflation, Fed, and Japan Outlook (with Abeer Abu Omar)

Inflation outlook is 'wait and see' due to energy price impacts from the Strait of Hormuz closure. The Fed is likely on hold for a meaningful period as growth doesn't justify cuts nor hikes. The Yen will remain challenged until the Strait reopens, with further BOJ intervention likely.

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Aberdeen Investments 7.8
Asset Manager $600.00B
Sree Kogilavendan 7.5

Inflation, Fed, and Japan Outlook (with Abeer Abu Omar)

dxy

The dollar has become the go-to currency, a safe haven bid at the moment.

wti

The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the bigger the risk in terms of the feedthrough into core inflation.

2 calls

+49

frequent correct calls with solid market follow-through

5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM	short term up	6 days later	+6.34%	+6.34%
4/13/2026 9:18:40 AM	medium term up	20 days later	+16.59%	+16.59%

yields

The Fed to be on hold for a meaningful period of time.

2 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

12/4/2025 6:49:20 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.60%	-0.30%
10/20/2025 12:49:03 PM	short term cautious up	6 days later	+0.86%	+0.43%

Abeer Abu Omar

Is the inflation outlook still 'wait and see' amid Middle East uncertainty?
Sree Kogilavendan

Yes, the impact of energy price rises is visible, but the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the bigger the risk of feed-through into core inflation and food prices next year. Central banks are watching inflation expectations, not just headline numbers.
Abeer Abu Omar

What are you watching in the US employment data for May, and how does it impact the Fed?
Sree Kogilavendan

Consensus is for 80-100k nonfarm payrolls, which would be in line with a stable but slower labor market. The growth story doesn't justify hikes or cuts, leading to a 'healthy paralysis' and the Fed being on hold for a meaningful period.
Abeer Abu Omar

How soon do you see a BOJ rate hike and another intervention on the Yen?
Sree Kogilavendan

The Yen will remain challenged until the Strait of Hormuz reopens due to a strong dollar safe-haven bid. Further intervention is likely. A BOJ hike is expected, likely in July, but what they say about the balance sheet is more important.

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