Mark Cranfield believes markets have headline fatigue on Iran and are moving past it, driven by the dominant AI story. He sees the dollar starting a downtrend, as it failed to rally on higher Treasury yields. The benefit of higher oil prices for the US is fading, and seasonality (June-July) is typically negative for the dollar.
Yields
NDX
RUT
implicit
Metals
explicit
Bloomberg
5.5
Financial Media
Mark Cranfield 5.0
Financial Media
Mark Cranfield 5.0
5/29/2026 12:40:23 PM
dxy
The dollar looks as though it's starting a downtrend.
| 5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.69% | +0.69% |
| 5/7/2026 11:14:07 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.65% | -0.65% |
| 5/7/2026 10:02:35 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.65% | -0.33% |
| 5/7/2026 9:41:16 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.65% | -0.65% |
| 5/6/2026 7:07:04 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.04% | -0.02% |
| 4/30/2026 8:02:59 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.19% | -0.19% |
| 3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -0.53% | -0.79% |
| 3/23/2026 9:48:17 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -1.07% | -1.60% |
| 3/23/2026 7:21:12 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +1.09% | +1.09% |
| 3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.89% | +0.89% |
| 3/9/2026 8:28:21 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.89% | +0.89% |
| 3/6/2026 10:25:51 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.52% | +1.52% |
| 2/23/2026 2:15:21 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +0.51% | -0.51% |
| 2/13/2026 9:47:08 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +0.62% | -0.62% |
| 2/11/2026 2:09:22 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.24% | -0.12% |
| 2/11/2026 10:51:35 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.24% | -0.12% |
| 2/6/2026 5:34:10 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.28% | +0.28% |
| 2/5/2026 6:10:54 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.82% | -0.82% |
| 1/30/2026 2:30:29 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 1/29/2026 9:02:44 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.97% | -0.48% |
| 1/29/2026 9:23:52 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.65% | -0.65% |
| 1/29/2026 9:18:07 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.97% | -0.48% |
| 1/29/2026 9:02:17 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.97% | -0.48% |
| 1/28/2026 7:33:33 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.20% | -1.20% |
| 1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | +1.20% | -1.81% |
| 1/27/2026 11:03:03 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.20% | -1.20% |
| 1/26/2026 7:52:04 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +1.44% | -0.72% |
| 1/26/2026 4:46:43 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.44% | -1.44% |
| 1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.74% | +1.74% |
| 1/20/2026 5:25:20 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.74% | +1.74% |
| 1/14/2026 6:48:56 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | -1.71% | +1.71% |
| 1/12/2026 3:24:56 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +0.27% | -0.27% |
| 1/12/2026 2:06:59 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +0.27% | -0.27% |
| 12/23/2025 10:14:37 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.17% | +1.17% |
| 12/11/2025 6:13:10 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.03% | +0.02% |
| 12/4/2025 6:49:20 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.20% | +0.10% |
| 12/1/2025 5:28:31 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.08% | +0.54% |
| 11/4/2025 12:00:38 PM | long term up | 61 days later | -1.93% | -1.93% |
| 10/17/2025 10:27:37 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.43% | -0.43% |
| 10/1/2025 10:52:02 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.75% | -0.37% |
| 10/1/2025 8:12:58 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.75% | -0.75% |
| 10/1/2025 8:12:58 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +1.07% | -1.07% |
| 9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.41% | -0.20% |
| 9/25/2025 1:14:48 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.45% | -0.45% |
| 9/17/2025 10:11:21 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.09% | +0.05% |
| 9/17/2025 8:33:28 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.09% | +0.05% |
| 9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.15% | +0.15% |
| 8/26/2025 8:35:09 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +0.17% | -0.17% |
| 8/1/2025 2:29:07 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.26% | -0.26% |
| 8/1/2025 12:29:01 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.26% | -0.26% |
wti
Cranfield notes it's very hard to sustain rallies in the oil futures market, implying a downward bias.
