Luke Gromen argues that the US debt problem is unsustainable, leading to a weaker dollar and a shift away from Treasuries toward gold as a reserve asset. He sees the Fed's QT as likely pseudo-tightening (effectively QE via banks), which is positive for gold, Bitcoin, and equities. He warns that tech deflation conflicts with high debt levels, potentially causing a crisis that will be resolved by printing money and defaulting on bondholders in real terms.
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FFTT
7.0
Management Consulting
Luke Gromen 9.0
Management Consulting
Luke Gromen 9.0
6/3/2026 12:10:41 AM
dxy
The dollar will be the release valve. They're giving up the dollar as reserve currency. It's already underway.
| 2/2/2026 8:00:26 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.27% | -0.27% |
| 7/28/2025 8:00:49 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | -0.75% | +0.75% |
metals
Gold will become the first reserve asset. Central banks are reserving gold. Pseudo-QT is good for gold. Long-term in gold, no (to being bullish on stocks).
| 5/14/2026 8:00:21 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.30% | -0.45% |
| 2/2/2026 8:00:26 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +4.98% | +7.47% |
| 1/12/2026 8:00:54 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -3.02% | -4.54% |
| 11/14/2025 8:00:54 PM | long term sharp up | 60 days later | +33.85% | +50.78% |
| 10/24/2025 8:00:10 PM | long term sharp up | 60 days later | +30.90% | +46.35% |
ndx
Gromen says Buffett metrics are dangerously high (only seen before crashes), but pseudo-QE and passive flows into AI stocks support Nasdaq. He's cautious short-term but sees printing as supportive medium-term.
rut
Gromen says Buffett metrics are at extreme levels (only seen before major drawdowns). Small caps (RUT) are more sensitive to economic weakness and debt stress. He's cautious on equities short-term.
wti
Gromen mentions that printing money drives up oil prices (asphalt example). A weaker dollar also supports commodity prices. He expects inflation in real costs including energy.
yields
Gromen says pseudo-QT (effectively QE) will keep long-end yields from rising too fast, but the massive debt and deficit will eventually push yields higher. He implies yields are structurally supported by Fed intervention but face upward pressure from supply.
