Michael Swanson discusses the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on fertilizer and diesel prices, noting that prices would drop quickly if a deal is reached. He highlights the protein craze driven by GLP-1 drugs as a lasting trend, and notes that consumers are trading down in some categories but splurging on premium beverages. He expects fruits and vegetables to see the most price pressure due to labor and transportation costs.
Yields
NDX
RUT
implicit
inferred
USD
Wells Fargo
8.0
Investment Bank $1900.00B
Michael Swanson 7.5
Investment Bank $1900.00B
Michael Swanson 7.5
5/26/2026 11:25:20 PM
metals
No direct mention of metals. The focus is on agricultural commodities and energy. The geopolitical uncertainty might provide some support, but no clear directional signal.
| 1/30/2026 1:40:18 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +6.99% | +6.99% |
| 1/15/2026 11:42:20 PM | long term up | 60 days later | -0.33% | -0.33% |
| 12/29/2025 2:13:05 PM | long term up | 62 days later | +19.88% | +19.88% |
| 10/24/2025 12:04:36 AM | medium term sharp up | 21 days later | +2.67% | +4.01% |
| 10/13/2025 3:43:24 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -4.21% | -6.32% |
wti
Swanson says fertilizer prices would drop quickly if a deal is reached, implying oil prices would also fall. However, he notes the bigger driver for food is wages, suggesting the oil price drop might be limited in its broader impact.
| 3/3/2026 6:19:39 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +26.94% | -13.47% |
yields
The interview focuses on food and agricultural inputs. No direct mention of bond yields. The discussion of persistent wage inflation suggests the Fed may remain cautious, keeping yields rangebound.
| 4/17/2026 6:51:24 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +3.76% | +3.76% |
| 4/14/2026 1:22:44 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +3.13% | +1.56% |
| 1/22/2026 4:03:42 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.18% | +1.59% |
| 1/21/2026 12:39:17 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.61% | +0.31% |
| 1/15/2026 2:22:02 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.52% | -0.26% |
| 12/6/2025 1:57:50 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.24% | +0.24% |
| 11/25/2025 9:29:21 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +3.78% | +1.89% |
| 10/29/2025 8:17:20 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.98% | -0.49% |
| 10/8/2025 8:58:05 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.17% | +1.08% |
| 9/11/2025 9:13:15 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.18% |
| 9/9/2025 2:56:46 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | +0.05% | -0.07% |
| 9/4/2025 8:56:40 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.32% | -0.66% |
| 8/21/2025 1:22:02 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.85% | +2.92% |
| 8/19/2025 1:48:18 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.17% | +2.58% |
| 7/16/2025 3:14:00 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.85% | -2.85% |
