FX strategist on dollar, oil, and metals (with Lizzy, Anna)

Yields

NDX

RUT

Oil up , medium term, interviewee implicit

implicit

Metals down , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

USD up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Societe Generale 7.5
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Kit Juckes 7.5

FX strategist on dollar, oil, and metals (with Lizzy, Anna)

dxy

Dollar can run quite a long way. Oil producer status provides insulation; non-oil producer currencies (like AUD) face severe supply risks if conflict prolongs.

6 calls

+3

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

1/27/2026 7:14:21 PM	long term up	61 days later	+4.21%	+4.21%
12/15/2025 2:06:05 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.12%	+0.12%
10/15/2025 12:41:41 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.84%	-0.92%
8/19/2025 4:21:10 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.21%	-0.11%
7/30/2025 2:36:25 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-1.81%	-0.90%

Show all 5 dxy results

metals

Some people have been using gold to sell (since it's gone up a lot) in order to buy more expensive oil and things in the short run. Practical profit-taking and liquidity needs in a volatile environment; long-term dollar-alternative story on hold until conflict ends.

1 calls

+70

consistently strong, high-conviction calls that played out

12/12/2025 1:23:20 PM	long term up	60 days later	+17.36%	+17.36%

wti

Focus on oil supply availability, not just price. If conflict persists, supply disruption supports higher prices; mentions potential for $90/barrel settling.

Asks how much further the dollar can run if the war continues and Fed hikes look more likely.

Lizzy
Kit Juckes

Dollar can run quite a long way. Can't imagine wanting to own a currency of a country that isn't an oil producer.

Uses Australia as an example: they have about 30 days of oil reserves. If this lasts another 30 days, they have a big problem. The dollar, Norwegian krone, and Canadian dollar are fine; others face completely different problems if this lasts two months vs one.
Asks if the dollar would reverse gains if Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

Lizzy
Kit Juckes

You would pause for a bit. The situation is too fluid to say everything is good now.

The difference is not just the oil price but availability. We are taking a big hunk of global oil supply out. Without that, someone won't have any. If we settle at $90 a barrel for a significant length of time, the dollar doesn't go up much on that.
Asks what drives the big moves in precious metals (gold down 8.7%, silver down 9.6%) and how much further the trend has to run.

Anna
Kit Juckes

Some people have been using gold to sell (since it's gone up a lot) in order to buy more expensive oil and things in the short run. Some of this is just practical.

Doesn't think the long-term story for precious metals changes much. The long-term desire to seek alternatives to the dollar is probably still valid, but we won't return to that until the conflict is over.
Asks about the pound weakening against the euro despite hawkish BOE language, reflecting traders' disbelief in hikes given weak growth.

Lizzy
Kit Juckes

The growth backdrop is more important than the rate backdrop. The UK has a difficult growth-inflation trade-off.

Forecasts for the UK economy are coming down to 0.3-0.4%. If this goes on a long time, we'll have a very ugly position turning into an ugly fiscal position. Then you start worrying about the long end of the gilt market. Not surprised the pound didn't react positively.

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