Bob Michele expects the Fed to be forced into action by September, with 1-2 maintenance hikes possible. The 10-year Treasury is fairly valued in a 4.125%-4.625% range. Global capex from energy security, defense, and AI will sustain growth. Hyperscaler debt is being absorbed well. Emerging markets have shown resilience.

explicit

implicit
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
JPMorgan 9.2
Financial Conglomerate $3170.00B
Bob Michele 9.5
6/30/2026 7:43:59 PM
ndx
AI capex will run for a decade; first half is investment, second half is payback. Hyperscalers have pristine balance sheets supporting tech growth.
yields
We expect the 10-year US Treasury to trade between 4 and 1/8 and 4 and 5/8.
59 calls
-2
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
Tani Fukui sees international trade linkages as 'a concern' but not broken. The consumer is strong in aggregate, with low debt service ratios. AI is a net positive for productivity over 3-5 years, but the path is not smooth. The new Fed chair's close-to-the-vest communication style may backfire in the social media era.

implicit

explicit
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
MetLife Investment Management 7.5
Asset Manager $608.00B
Tani Fukui 8.0
6/30/2026 7:43:59 PM
ndx
AI is a net positive for productivity over 3-5 years... massive gains to be had.
3 calls
+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
yields
Inflation concerns are not done; shifting trade patterns and AI energy demand will keep pressure on yields. The Fed may need to be more hawkish than expected.
Chris Marangi sees the market as being in a bubble 'everywhere somewhere,' still mid-innings. He favors sports teams as stores of value and sees value in small-cap stocks. He discusses Comcast's split, media consolidation, and the importance of live content as a new moat.
Yields

implicit
Oil
Metals
USD
Gabelli Funds 8.5
Asset Manager $40.00B
Chris Marangi 7.5
6/30/2026 7:43:59 PM
ndx
Still mid-innings in a bubble; earnings estimates have gone up more than the market, suggesting continued but cautious upside.
rut
Value is still in down-cap markets... we started really finding value there.
Ellen Wald argues the Sunni-Shia split is becoming less politically important. Gulf states feel abandoned by the US on Strait of Hormuz security and may build pipelines to bypass it. Oil flows will not return to normal; a more expensive 'ferry service' model is emerging. China's demand is uncertain, which could lead to a glut if it doesn't return.
Yields
NDX
RUT

implicit
Metals
USD
Atlantic Council 6.0
Policy Institute
Ellen Wald 6.5
6/30/2026 7:43:59 PM
wti
Oil at $50 is possible if China's demand doesn't return; the new normal for Gulf oil flows is more expensive and slower, but demand uncertainty is the key factor.