Bob Michele expects the Fed to be forced into action by September, with 1-2 maintenance hikes possible. The 10-year Treasury is fairly valued in a 4.125%-4.625% range. Global capex from energy security, defense, and AI will sustain growth. Hyperscaler debt is being absorbed well. Emerging markets have shown resilience.
explicit
implicit
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
JPMorgan
9.2
Financial Conglomerate $3170.00B
Bob Michele 9.5
Financial Conglomerate $3170.00B
Bob Michele 9.5
6/30/2026 7:43:59 PM
ndx
AI capex will run for a decade; first half is investment, second half is payback. Hyperscalers have pristine balance sheets supporting tech growth.
yields
We expect the 10-year US Treasury to trade between 4 and 1/8 and 4 and 5/8.
| 6/18/2026 1:57:40 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.10% | -1.10% |
| 6/11/2026 3:45:06 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.53% | -0.53% |
| 5/29/2026 10:05:50 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +0.76% | -0.38% |
| 5/26/2026 2:08:46 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.13% | -0.13% |
| 5/22/2026 2:18:11 PM | medium term cautious up | 22 days later | -1.95% | -0.98% |
| 5/21/2026 9:57:13 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 9:55:02 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 7:18:44 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -1.04% |
| 5/21/2026 11:46:46 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 10:34:29 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -2.08% |
| 5/21/2026 9:18:32 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 9:17:57 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -1.69% |
| 5/18/2026 1:19:26 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.34% | -2.34% |
| 5/16/2026 12:08:42 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.41% | -1.41% |
| 5/16/2026 12:06:16 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.41% | -1.41% |
| 5/13/2026 10:40:42 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.67% | +0.67% |
| 5/12/2026 2:35:01 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.17% | +3.17% |
| 5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.27% | +0.27% |
| 5/6/2026 7:59:28 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 5/5/2026 9:11:37 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.24% | +0.62% |
| 4/30/2026 2:45:27 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.50% |
| 4/30/2026 2:09:30 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 4/30/2026 1:27:38 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 4/29/2026 12:00:22 AM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | +4.15% | -6.22% |
| 3/31/2026 2:37:12 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -0.63% | -0.31% |
| 3/13/2026 9:15:48 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +2.70% |
| 3/11/2026 11:21:40 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.66% | -1.66% |
| 3/5/2026 1:17:37 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.81% | +0.91% |
| 3/2/2026 6:25:12 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.90% | +1.90% |
| 2/14/2026 1:07:19 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.90% | -0.95% |
| 2/6/2026 5:06:02 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -3.57% | +1.79% |
| 1/23/2026 5:36:13 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -3.73% | -3.73% |
| 1/16/2026 1:47:58 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.78% | -0.78% |
| 1/16/2026 12:23:05 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.78% | -0.78% |
| 12/11/2025 1:18:26 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.03% | +1.03% |
| 12/10/2025 9:25:29 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.53% | -0.27% |
| 12/1/2025 2:17:57 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 11/21/2025 1:54:47 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +3.57% | +3.57% |
| 11/7/2025 6:12:18 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -0.34% | +0.17% |
| 11/4/2025 12:53:31 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.73% | -1.86% |
| 10/30/2025 1:40:41 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.12% | +0.06% |
| 10/29/2025 8:30:24 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/21/2025 2:15:04 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -0.56% |
| 10/18/2025 12:19:19 AM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -0.25% | +0.37% |
| 10/17/2025 9:07:08 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.25% | +0.12% |
| 10/16/2025 5:42:00 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.15% | +1.07% |
| 10/1/2025 3:11:20 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.30% | +1.65% |
| 9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.48% | +1.74% |
| 9/22/2025 5:25:48 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -1.67% | -1.67% |
| 9/17/2025 6:49:25 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.61% | -0.30% |
| 9/11/2025 11:57:02 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.66% | +0.33% |
| 9/11/2025 4:51:16 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.37% |
| 9/10/2025 9:53:06 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/10/2025 6:33:02 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 8/28/2025 1:07:30 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.38% | +0.19% |
| 8/15/2025 9:10:00 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -1.52% | +0.76% |
| 8/12/2025 4:29:28 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.92% | +0.46% |
| 8/8/2025 2:04:22 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +1.59% | -0.80% |
| 8/4/2025 11:59:32 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.84% | -1.84% |
