Global bond yields are breaking out, driven by a confluence of higher oil from geopolitical risk feeding inflation and a structural repricing of US fiscal recklessness. The market is rejecting the 'range-bound' narrative. With the Fed pinned on hold by sticky inflation, the front-end is anchored. The trade is curve flatteners, as the long-end remains vulnerable to rising global yields and a necessary expansion of term premium. The fiscal situation is untenable.
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Metals
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Societe Generale
8.0
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Subadra Rajappa 8.5
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Subadra Rajappa 8.5
5/22/2026 10:05:04 PM
wti
Higher oil prices... the longer the conflict persists, the higher the odds that we might see higher oil prices to the end of the year.
| 4/29/2026 1:13:48 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -5.73% | -2.86% |
| 3/27/2026 2:05:36 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +13.89% |
| 12/12/2025 1:23:20 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | +2.64% | -2.64% |
yields
A confluence of factors are driving yields higher... global bond yields are rising... the market is pushing back on the narrative that yields are going to be rangebound.
| 5/13/2026 2:48:36 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.62% | +4.62% |
| 4/29/2026 1:13:48 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +4.15% | +2.07% |
| 3/12/2026 11:47:40 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.61% | -0.61% |
| 1/27/2026 7:14:21 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.56% | -0.28% |
| 12/11/2025 1:18:26 AM | medium term down | 21 days later | -0.17% | +0.17% |
| 10/15/2025 12:41:41 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +4.55% | -2.28% |
| 9/17/2025 12:56:40 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +0.39% | +0.19% |
