Three critical elements: 1) Oil prices – we think we'll quickly get to $70. OPEC will go full out, Trump will encourage them. 2) New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh uses forecasting, not data-dependence. He'll adjust inflation measures properly. 3) We should have 75bps of cuts over the next year, driving the 10-year down to ~4%, justifying our 23x multiple on rising earnings.

If OPEC went full out before the war, we'd be at $55. We're keeping a $15 risk premium because this is just an agreement to agree. The risk is all to the upside – earnings are exploding.

We should have 75bps of cuts over the next year. The 10-year is driven by expected cuts. If we get below 4%, that justifies our 23x multiple. Estimates have gone up 12% since the beginning of the year.

The risk is all to the upside. If you look at the chart, it's just straight up.

It's narrow, but that's how the market is. We'll have a much broader base rally with financials and consumer cyclicals. The market was ridiculously strong during the war because of estimate increases. The risk is all to the upside.

This is an earnings explosion, nothing like the internet boom. We're just taking the same methodology based on interest rates and oil prices.