Yields
NDX
Oil
Metals
USD
Harvard
1.8
University
Kenneth Rogoff 9.0
University
Kenneth Rogoff 9.0
4/15/2026 4:14:06 PM
dxy
What's it like to have the war works out? Right? I mean if it's a big win for the United States, it's probably good for the brand. probably strengthens the US hand... On the other hand, it doesn't go well if it looks more like a rack... Then I think it's negative.
Dollar direction is explicitly framed as binary and dependent on war outcome: strong US victory -> dollar up; protracted conflict -> dollar down. This creates a volatile, scenario-dependent outlook.
| 1/31/2026 3:00:44 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +0.09% | -0.05% |
| 9/17/2025 1:00:49 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +1.54% | -1.54% |
wti
The discussion centers on a war that risks shutting down 20% of oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, described as a stagflationary shock. This implies upward pressure on oil prices, though the magnitude is conditional on conflict escalation.
yields
I think over the medium term, this pushes interest rates up, not down.
Due to stagflationary shock from war and tariffs, inflation expectations adjusting, military spending, populism, and high debt levels pushing up real rates.
| 4/3/2026 12:20:17 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | +0.02% | +0.02% |
| 1/31/2026 3:00:44 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -1.80% | +0.90% |
| 12/9/2025 1:32:13 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -0.82% | -0.41% |
| 11/1/2025 2:00:00 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -1.66% | +0.83% |
| 9/17/2025 1:00:49 PM | long term up | 60 days later | +0.71% | +0.71% |
| 9/5/2025 11:17:40 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.15% |
| 9/4/2025 12:03:38 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.32% | -0.66% |
| 8/16/2025 2:06:17 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -1.52% | +0.76% |
| 8/8/2025 8:34:45 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +1.59% | +0.80% |
| 8/4/2025 4:53:03 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.88% | -0.94% |
