Gold & Silver Rise Ahead of Key Economic Data - Key Levels to Watch

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Phillip Streible .0

Gold & Silver Rise Ahead of Key Economic Data - Key Levels to Watch - Metals Minute Phil Streible

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The dollar index gaining a bit of strength here. Some of that could be some flight to safety, geopolitical stuff like that. Describes dollar gaining strength, breaking to neutral trend (implying upward momentum from previous state), with euro needing to recover to reverse trend. Flight to safety narrative supports near-term strength.

metals

Otherwise, the bull trend looks fairly intact here. Precious metals again, they are rising overnight. So gold and silver, they are headed for their biggest weekly gains. Notes overnight gains, technical support levels holding, but acknowledges risks from profit-taking and economic data. Bull trend 'intact' but not aggressively bullish given data dependency.

136 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

12/23/2025 2:10:09 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-3.74%	-5.62%
12/19/2025 5:07:19 PM	long term sharp up	60 days later	+12.69%	+19.04%
12/19/2025 1:48:55 PM	long term up	60 days later	+12.69%	+12.69%
12/17/2025 2:18:23 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+4.34%	+6.50%
12/16/2025 1:50:51 PM	long term up	61 days later	+14.28%	+14.28%
12/15/2025 10:17:24 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+4.27%	+6.41%
12/15/2025 10:16:24 PM	long term sharp up	62 days later	+15.71%	+23.57%
12/11/2025 2:02:09 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+1.96%	+2.94%
12/10/2025 2:04:36 PM	long term up	60 days later	+18.06%	+18.06%
12/8/2025 1:55:19 PM	short term up	6 days later	+2.72%	+2.72%
12/4/2025 1:55:43 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.41%	-0.41%
12/3/2025 1:42:38 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+0.20%	+0.29%
11/28/2025 2:32:51 PM	short term sharp up	7 days later	-1.06%	-1.59%
11/27/2025 3:34:31 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-0.43%	-0.64%
11/25/2025 2:09:39 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+1.99%	+2.99%
11/20/2025 2:01:46 PM	long term up	60 days later	+19.78%	+19.78%
11/19/2025 2:11:41 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+2.07%	+3.10%
11/18/2025 2:15:37 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.30%	-0.15%
11/17/2025 11:09:46 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.63%	-0.32%
11/14/2025 2:02:42 PM	short term down	7 days later	+0.48%	-0.48%
11/12/2025 10:49:45 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-3.06%	-4.59%
11/12/2025 2:16:05 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-3.06%	-4.59%
11/11/2025 1:54:15 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-3.41%	-5.12%
11/7/2025 1:44:27 PM	short term sharp up	7 days later	-1.17%	-1.75%
10/30/2025 1:04:43 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-0.10%	-0.05%
10/29/2025 1:10:53 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-1.56%	-2.33%
10/28/2025 1:16:24 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.38%	-0.19%
10/27/2025 10:44:23 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.91%	-0.45%
10/17/2025 1:31:37 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-3.03%	-4.54%
10/13/2025 10:52:34 PM	short term up	5 days later	+2.17%	+2.17%
10/13/2025 2:05:40 PM	long term sharp up	62 days later	+4.31%	+6.46%
10/10/2025 2:00:52 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+3.16%	+4.74%
10/2/2025 1:50:52 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+4.52%	+6.78%
9/29/2025 2:11:15 PM	short term sharp up	6 days later	+2.91%	+4.37%
9/26/2025 2:00:35 PM	short term sharp up	7 days later	+3.31%	+4.97%
9/24/2025 2:07:11 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+12.13%	+12.13%
9/22/2025 1:45:19 PM	short term sharp up	6 days later	+1.42%	+2.13%
9/19/2025 2:06:39 PM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+2.79%	+1.39%
9/12/2025 2:07:34 PM	short term sharp up	7 days later	+1.47%	+2.20%
9/11/2025 1:56:16 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+0.46%	+0.23%
9/10/2025 1:41:49 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.20%	-0.60%
9/9/2025 11:14:55 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+5.83%	+8.74%
9/9/2025 2:18:10 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+1.08%	+1.62%
9/3/2025 1:52:44 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+1.97%	+2.96%
9/2/2025 2:02:33 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+0.83%	+1.24%
8/28/2025 2:17:15 PM	short term up	5 days later	+3.64%	+3.64%
8/13/2025 2:10:59 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.91%	-0.91%
8/4/2025 11:45:30 PM	medium term up	20 days later	-0.51%	-0.51%
7/24/2025 2:44:36 PM	short term down	5 days later	-1.17%	+1.17%
7/18/2025 2:12:59 PM	short term up	7 days later	-2.75%	-2.75%

Show all 50 metals results

yields

10-year Treasury yields just very complacent back and forth. 4.11 to 4.22% sitting at about 4.18%. Characterizes yields as 'complacent back and forth' within narrow range, awaiting economic data for direction. Notes critical resistance level that would change trend if broken.

70 calls

-2

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

12/23/2025 2:10:09 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.48%	+0.24%
12/19/2025 1:48:55 PM	short term up	7 days later	-1.27%	-1.27%
12/11/2025 2:02:09 PM	short term down	5 days later	-1.03%	+1.03%
12/10/2025 2:04:36 PM	short term up	5 days later	+0.19%	+0.19%
12/9/2025 2:09:53 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+0.43%	+0.65%
12/4/2025 1:55:43 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.60%	-0.30%
11/28/2025 2:32:51 PM	short term down	7 days later	+1.86%	-1.86%
11/27/2025 3:34:31 PM	short term down	5 days later	+1.00%	-1.00%
11/25/2025 2:09:39 PM	short term down	5 days later	+2.45%	-2.45%
11/24/2025 2:27:59 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+2.35%	-1.17%
11/20/2025 2:01:46 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-1.60%	-0.80%
11/14/2025 2:02:42 PM	short term cautious up	7 days later	-2.30%	-1.15%
11/5/2025 2:23:24 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.66%	-0.33%
10/30/2025 1:04:43 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.37%	-0.68%
10/29/2025 1:10:53 PM	short term down	5 days later	-0.10%	+0.10%
10/28/2025 1:16:24 PM	short term down	5 days later	+1.18%	-1.18%
10/27/2025 10:44:23 PM	short term down	6 days later	+3.09%	-3.09%
10/17/2025 1:31:37 PM	short term down	5 days later	-0.25%	+0.25%
10/2/2025 1:50:52 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.24%	-0.24%
9/29/2025 2:11:15 PM	short term down	6 days later	+0.34%	-0.34%
9/26/2025 2:00:35 PM	short term down	7 days later	+0.51%	-0.51%
9/10/2025 1:41:49 PM	short term up	5 days later	+0.37%	+0.37%
9/9/2025 11:14:55 PM	medium term sharp down	20 days later	+2.88%	-4.32%
9/9/2025 2:18:10 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.05%	-0.05%
9/2/2025 2:02:33 PM	short term up	5 days later	-3.92%	-3.92%
8/28/2025 2:17:15 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.38%	+0.19%
8/13/2025 2:10:59 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.21%	-0.21%
7/18/2025 2:12:59 PM	short term down	7 days later	+1.10%	-1.10%

Show all 28 yields results

Phil Streible

Looking at overnight markets: Chinese futures exchange adjusting price limits/margin requirements for platinum futures starting Jan 13th. Futures snapping back overnight - February gold up $20 at $44.81 (up ~0.5%), silver up ~3.5% at $77.68.

Monitoring if Chinese adjustments impact markets; notes global exchanges trying to curb speculation.
Phil Streible

Silver pulled back to $70 support level, bounced off ~50% Fibonacci retracement at $82-83 level. First area of support; below $70 could extend washout to $65 then $62. Otherwise bull trend looks fairly intact.
Phil Streible

Rio Tinto in talks to buy Glenor to create world's biggest mining company (~$200B combined value). Expect more M&A in metals/mining space with rising prices, improving profitability and capex.
Phil Streible

Precious metals rising overnight, headed for biggest weekly gains as traders await US jobs data for clues on Fed's next move on interest rates.
Phil Streible

Gold's appeal reinforced by geopolitical tensions: Japan-China trade relations, US capture of Venezuela's leader, unrest in Iran, Trump talking about Greenland/Cuba/Colombia. This adds structural support to gold's staying power.
Phil Streible

Risk management paramount: Use smaller of 2% per trade or 2x average true range for stop placement. Many people 'yolo calls' and eventually bust when correction comes.

Example: Friday up $7, gaps higher Sunday, people average up too high, market corrects down $10 Monday due to poor risk management.
Phil Streible

Key support: gold $42.88, silver $69.92. Technically bulls want to see close over $82.67 on rising volume into next session and hold gains. Then talks of $85-90 silver come back into play.
Phil Streible

ETF flows: Gold ETFs rising 0.1% YTD, added 88,000 troy ounces, 4th straight day of growth to 99.1M ounces (highest since Sept 2022). Silver ETFs down 1.7% YTD, cut 509,000 troy ounces, 5 straight days of declines.
Phil Streible

Copper up 11 cents at $5.90, platinum $2,305, palladium $1,924 - nice move across board but risks of profit taking and economic data.
Phil Streible

Only follow two things: technical signals (long/short/bullish/bearish/neutral) and economic data rate of change.

Applies across all markets: grains, softs, treasury yields.
Phil Streible

December non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, unemployment rate due at 7:30am CT. Will move gold, US dollar, 10-year Treasury yields, stock indices.
Phil Streible

Rate cut expectations declining: 13.8% chance of 25bps cut at Jan 28 meeting, 36.6% at March 18. Three Fed speakers (Kashkari, Bostic, Barkin) speaking today.
Phil Streible

Dollar index gaining strength ($98.78) - could disrupt party in markets. Some flight to safety/geopolitical factors. Eurozone unemployment declined yesterday, euro popped then sold off.
Phil Streible

Dollar breaking to neutral trend. Euro teetering on bearish trend at $1.1679 - needs to capture $1.17 handle and turn up. Want to see higher low on euro chart, lower high on dollar index.
Phil Streible

10-year Treasury yields complacent at 4.18% (range 4.11-4.22%). Resistance on 10-year futures at 113 - break above would put yields back below 4%.
Phil Streible

Bitcoin steady around $91,000-90,500. Key level $93,675 - break above recapturing $95,000 puts $100,000 back in cards. Break below $86,300 sees recent buyers capitulate. Key support ~$80,000.

Bitcoin pops during unrest (Venezuela inflation, president captured) as people flee currencies, then liquidates when things die down.
Phil Streible

S&P 500 gamma exposure neutral, VIX anchored at 16.51 - quiet volatility recently.
Phil Streible

European stocks advance with mining shares biggest gainers. Asian stocks fluctuating waiting for US economic data and possible Supreme Court ruling on tariffs (could cause volatility).

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