Geopolitical tensions (Iran/Hormuz) are spiking oil prices, but the underlying supply glut (8-10M bpd surplus) remains. McGlone sees oil in a bear market, likely to fall despite current spike. This oil shock is pressuring equities (NDX down 0.6%), with further stock declines possible if oil continues to rise, exacerbating the supply/demand imbalance.
Yields
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
The Trump Organization, Inc 3.0
Real Estate
Donald Trump 5.0
Bloomberg News Now: Trump Says Iran Cease Fire Extension Is Unlikely As Oil Prices Surge
WTI
4/20/2026 9:01:16 PM
ndx
Host reports Nasdaq down 0.6% due to oil-driven market selloff; no explicit directional forecast from interviewee.
wti
It's a bear market that's bounced much, much more likely to go down. And the key thing that might make it go down to that level by the end of the year. Fundamental oversupply (8-10 million barrels/day surplus) outweighs current geopolitical price spike.
70 calls
-2
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
4/17/2026 2:08:13 PM short term sharp down 7 days later +7.54% -11.32%
4/17/2026 11:37:01 AM short term cautious down 7 days later +7.54% -3.77%
4/17/2026 8:31:26 AM short term cautious down 7 days later +7.54% -3.77%
4/16/2026 10:53:39 PM short term sharp down 5 days later +10.86% -16.30%
4/16/2026 10:21:15 PM short term sharp down 5 days later +10.86% -16.30%
4/13/2026 11:02:21 PM short term cautious up 6 days later -1.83% -0.91%
4/13/2026 9:46:23 AM short term sharp up 6 days later -1.83% -2.74%
4/8/2026 8:00:34 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -6.73% +3.37%
4/8/2026 2:17:04 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -6.73% +10.10%
4/2/2026 9:36:47 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -15.36% -23.04%
4/2/2026 6:55:00 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -15.36% +7.68%
4/1/2026 3:20:56 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.26% -0.63%
3/26/2026 6:00:03 PM short term up 5 days later +0.48% +0.48%
3/23/2026 7:47:20 PM short term sharp down 6 days later +11.40% -17.10%
3/18/2026 8:32:27 AM short term up 5 days later -3.94% -3.94%
3/16/2026 11:23:07 PM short term up 6 days later -8.40% -8.40%
3/16/2026 9:03:21 PM short term sharp down 6 days later -8.40% +12.60%
3/16/2026 8:16:44 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +16.84% -8.42%
3/10/2026 9:18:14 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +7.16% -3.58%
3/10/2026 12:50:01 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +7.16% -3.58%
3/8/2026 6:30:54 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -1.34% -0.67%
3/6/2026 12:26:05 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +8.59% -4.30%
3/4/2026 9:51:48 AM short term sharp down 5 days later +3.01% -4.52%
3/3/2026 11:55:33 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +26.94% +13.47%
1/21/2026 7:26:12 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +5.10% -2.55%
1/13/2026 7:24:32 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.92% -0.96%
1/9/2026 10:36:27 PM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.12% +0.06%
1/5/2026 7:12:40 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later +6.13% +9.19%
10/23/2025 12:46:28 PM short term sharp up 5 days later -1.66% -2.49%
10/15/2025 10:20:54 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +3.72% -1.86%
10/9/2025 10:45:24 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.07% +0.53%
9/15/2025 9:09:32 AM short term cautious up 6 days later -2.91% -1.46%
9/12/2025 12:16:57 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -2.54% +1.27%
8/25/2025 10:59:06 PM short term up 7 days later +3.70% +3.70%
8/5/2025 4:44:03 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.61% +0.30%
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