Invesco Macro Outlook - Inflation, Labor, and Geopolitics (with Anna, Tom, Guy)

Yields cautious up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX cautious down , medium term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

Invesco 8.5
Asset Manager $1000.00B
Ben Jones 8.5

Invesco Macro Outlook - Inflation, Labor, and Geopolitics (with Anna, Tom, Guy)

ndx

It's not just all about the US anymore... There are better opportunities in Europe, in Asia. Prefers non-US markets due to valuation and thematic opportunities, implying relative underperformance for US tech-heavy indices.

yields

I think we get bond yields creeping a little bit higher... I would not be taking duration risk in the US at the moment. Stronger labor market and persistent inflation from reshoring/defense spending pressures.

9 calls

-1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

12/24/2025 2:45:53 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.58%	+0.29%
12/23/2025 1:51:56 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.48%	-0.48%
12/3/2025 9:18:48 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.90%	-0.95%
12/1/2025 10:51:32 AM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+2.10%	-1.05%
10/28/2025 3:52:51 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.60%	-1.60%

Show all 5 yields results

How do you invest with such an activist presidency and intervention from the White House?

Anna
Ben Jones

Take a step back. Key trends are more defense spending, reshoring, and a more activist presidency, leading to more inflation and better nominal growth globally.

These trends from 2025 continue. None of us can pick the next tweet, so focus on the big themes.
Ben Jones

A more siloed world means more inflation. That's a better backdrop for active investors, with opportunities in Europe and Asia, not just the US.

UK is interesting due to commodities exposure, less China sensitivity, good yield, and being undervalued.
You're confident on US labor market strength. What are you seeing?

Tom
Ben Jones

NFIB small business survey shows more companies want to increase hiring and are struggling to find workers. Historically, this leads to a ~50bps drop in unemployment.

If this plays out, it means higher wage inflation, contradicting the consensus view of a soft labor market giving the Fed room to cut.
More inflation means rate hikes?

Guy
Ben Jones

Rate hikes should be on the table economically, but you have to throw the rules out. We've had 150bps of cuts since Sep '24, but 10-year yields are up.

I would not take duration risk in the US. Bond yields will creep higher. Be selective in the bond market.
Do you think we go back towards 5% on the 10-year?

Guy
Ben Jones

In the US, I think we head towards that sort of level.

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