Michael Swanson discusses the impact of fertilizer disruptions from the Iran war on agriculture, noting prices would drop quickly if the Strait reopened even before supply arrives. He highlights the protein craze driven by GLP-1 drugs as a lasting trend, compares it to statins with 90M prescriptions. Consumers are trading down in protein (chicken/pork over beef) but still splurging on premium beverages. Fruits and vegetables face most pressure from diesel costs and labor inflation.
inferred
NDX
RUT
implicit
inferred
USD
Wells Fargo
8.0
Investment Bank $1900.00B
Michael Swanson 7.5
Investment Bank $1900.00B
Michael Swanson 7.5
5/26/2026 11:24:55 PM
metals
No direct mention of metals, but the agricultural focus suggests fertilizer disruptions could impact certain agricultural commodities rather than precious metals.
| 1/30/2026 1:40:18 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +6.99% | +6.99% |
| 1/15/2026 11:42:20 PM | long term up | 60 days later | -0.33% | -0.33% |
| 12/29/2025 2:13:05 PM | long term up | 62 days later | +19.88% | +19.88% |
| 10/24/2025 12:04:36 AM | medium term sharp up | 21 days later | +2.67% | +4.01% |
| 10/13/2025 3:43:24 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -4.21% | -6.32% |
wti
Swanson notes fertilizer prices would drop quickly if the Strait reopened, implying oil prices are also sensitive to geopolitical developments and could be volatile.
| 3/3/2026 6:19:39 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +26.94% | -13.47% |
yields
Swanson's discussion of persistent wage inflation at 3-4% suggests the Fed may need to keep rates higher for longer, which could keep yields elevated but rangebound.
| 4/17/2026 6:51:24 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +3.76% | +3.76% |
| 4/14/2026 1:22:44 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +3.13% | +1.56% |
| 1/22/2026 4:03:42 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.18% | +1.59% |
| 1/21/2026 12:39:17 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.61% | +0.31% |
| 1/15/2026 2:22:02 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.52% | -0.26% |
| 12/6/2025 1:57:50 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.24% | +0.24% |
| 11/25/2025 9:29:21 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +3.78% | +1.89% |
| 10/29/2025 8:17:20 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.98% | -0.49% |
| 10/8/2025 8:58:05 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.17% | +1.08% |
| 9/11/2025 9:13:15 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.18% |
| 9/9/2025 2:56:46 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | +0.05% | -0.07% |
| 9/4/2025 8:56:40 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.32% | -0.66% |
| 8/21/2025 1:22:02 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.85% | +2.92% |
| 8/19/2025 1:48:18 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.17% | +2.58% |
| 7/16/2025 3:14:00 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.85% | -2.85% |
