Darren Carroll argues inflation risk is underestimated due to chokepoint friction and US fiscal deficits. He believes the market misinterpreted Fed Chair Warsh as hawkish; his preferred inflation measure (trimmed mean) is 2.4%, not 3.5%. He recommends real income, EM local debt, convertibles, and value equities (European/Japanese banks) over concentrated tech bets.

Linier argues the market is too optimistic about a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Free navigation requires mine clearance, insurance premium drops, and IRGC relinquishing control—none of which have happened. Recent transit increases only reflect release of previously trapped oil. Full normalization will take months.

Mark Cranfield argues that yen weakness will persist until the market naturally tires of shorting it, triggered by a fall in US yields. The BOJ is not rushing to raise rates to its 2% neutral level, while the Fed remains hawkish, keeping the dollar strong. Intervention has not worked and is unlikely to change the trend.

Vijay Shankar is optimistic about India's ECM market despite a muted first half due to the West Asia crisis. He expects $50-60 billion in ECM activity this year, driven by a strong pipeline of large IPOs (Jio Platforms, etc.), domestic flows exceeding $100 billion, and corrected valuations. Key risks are geopolitical tensions and monsoon performance.