Strait of Hormuz reopening will take months (with Haslinda Amin)

Linier argues the market is too optimistic about a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Free navigation requires mine clearance, insurance premium drops, and IRGC relinquishing control—none of which have happened. Recent transit increases only reflect release of previously trapped oil. Full normalization will take months.

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Strait of Hormuz reopening will take months (with Haslinda Amin)

wti

The market might be too confident or too optimistic towards a reopening of the Strait. It will take another few months to reach full navigation.

6 calls

+18

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

5/5/2026 6:12:22 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+3.14%	+4.72%
4/29/2026 8:07:43 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-2.66%	-1.33%
4/7/2026 9:00:23 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+5.85%	+2.92%
3/19/2026 6:07:45 AM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	-0.46%	-0.69%
3/2/2026 6:36:00 AM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+18.20%	+27.30%
1/5/2026 6:39:52 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+4.15%	-2.07%

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It does seem like markets might just be underpricing the risk here, right?

Haslinda Amin
Linier

Fully agreed. The market might be too confident or too optimistic towards a reopening of the Strait.

We are far from free navigation. We're in the initial stage of negotiations. It's a mild escalation, but we have a long way to go.
How long will it take and why will it take longer than people expect?

Haslinda Amin
Linier

We are far from free navigation. The main shipping lane needs mine clearance, insurance fees must drop significantly, and war risk premiums need to disappear. None of that has happened.

The US is rushing to exit the war, giving Iran leverage. The IRGC still largely controls the Strait. Many issues (nuclear, sanctions) haven't been addressed.
What assumptions are you making about supplies in the next 30-90 days?

Haslinda Amin
Linier

Recent rising transit is only the release of previously trapped oil, not free navigation. It will take another few months to reach full navigation.

More than 400 vessels are still stranded in the Gulf. Transit slowed significantly after last week's attacks.
What do we know about dark vessels and how many are getting through?

Haslinda Amin
Linier

Probably less than half have managed to pass. Some ballast ships are entering the Gulf to load crude, but only the more bold ship owners are doing that.

We need to see more ship owners making up their minds to enter the Gulf before we can say navigation is restored.
Have Asian customers changed their behavior in terms of where they buy crude?

Haslinda Amin
Linier

Yes, crude diversification is providing a strategic buffer for Asian importers. Inventory drawdowns have helped, but that's temporary. Demand destruction in China also eased supply shortages.

Asian countries are well supplied even with historic supply disruption. That's why oil prices are weak even before the ceasefire.
Do you see China's demand coming back online?

Haslinda Amin
Linier

I'm in Beijing and haven't seen any signal of demand recovery. Summer travel will boost road transport, but China's vast EV fleet (including trucks) means it won't convert directly to gasoline demand.

In Europe and the US, the summer travel season will boost oil demand more significantly.
At what oil price do you see China perhaps accumulating barrels?

Haslinda Amin
Linier

China accumulated inventories in the first four months, then tapped into commercial inventories during the disruption. The drawdown is less than 1 million bpd, so it's not an issue in the short term. China can survive longer even with a closed Strait.

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