Europe's kerosene shortage is a near-term catalyst for oil price spikes. An extreme scenario sees WTI hitting $180/bbl, triggering a global recession (GDP cut to 1.5%) and demand destruction, reversing 2026 growth to a contraction. Supply inelasticity, exacerbated by OPEC's weakened state and Strait of Hormuz risks, amplifies this. Expect yields to initially spike on inflation before recessionary forces dominate US markets, while safety bids lower them elsewhere.
Yields
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Rystad Energy 7.5
Energy
Jorge Leon 8.0
Oil price risk and demand destruction (with Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern)
5/5/2026 6:12:22 PM
wti
In an extreme scenario... we think oil prices could increase to about $180 per barrel during summer.
6 calls
+18
more right than wrong, with meaningful gains
4/29/2026 8:07:43 AM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.66% -1.33%
4/7/2026 9:00:23 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +5.85% +2.92%
3/19/2026 6:07:45 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -0.46% -0.69%
3/2/2026 6:36:00 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later +18.20% +27.30%
1/5/2026 6:39:52 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +4.15% -2.07%
Show all 5 wti results
yields
Leon's extreme oil price scenario would cause a recession in Europe and parts of Asia, which would likely lead to a flight to safety and lower yields in those regions, but in the US, the inflationary shock could push yields higher initially before recessionary forces take hold.

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