JPMorgan Global Macro Outlook 2026 (with Tom McKenzie)

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JPMorgan 9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Luis Oganes 9.5

JPMorgan Global Macro Outlook 2026 (with Tom McKenzie)

metals

$5,000 is in the offing by the end of 2020 and 6. And we can certainly see 6000, I don't know if 2020, 8, 20, 29. Drivers: central bank diversification from USD, geopolitical uncertainty, ETF and physical demand, new Chinese regulation allowing life insurers to invest in gold.

12/10/2025 9:48:13 PM	short term up	5 days later	+1.03%	+1.03%
11/18/2025 1:29:07 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+8.23%	+12.34%
9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+2.67%	+4.01%

Asks for 2026 global economic outlook and constructiveness given record stock highs.

Tom McKenzie
Luis Oganes

Constructive because growth resilience continues into 2026 with US ~2%, EU ~1.5%, China 4-5%, EM ex-China 3.3%. Much of this relates to massive AI/data center investments.
Asks about multiplier effect of US tax cuts and Chinese fiscal stimulus in 2026.

Tom McKenzie
Luis Oganes

US consumer held by wealth effect from high markets. China has pattern of strong first half/weaker second half; more fiscal stimulus could rescue again. Forecasts 4.4% growth for China in 2026.
Asks if European resilience to Chinese trade pressure is a story for 2026 or a recurring risk.

Tom McKenzie
Luis Oganes

Risk will rear its head again. Countries worldwide complain about cheap Chinese exports hurting local manufacturing, creating political pressure for action.

Travels a lot and hears complaints from India, Brazil, Turkey, Colombia. Mexico just announced tariffs on Chinese imports.
Asks if Chinese deflationary pressure means rethinking how far central banks have to hike.

Tom McKenzie
Luis Oganes

Deflationary pressure from China will limit need for DM central banks to hike. For EM, it allows central banks with high rates to cut, which is positive for EM local markets.
Asks why overweight EM vs DM for next year, noting it's partly down to rates.

Tom McKenzie
Luis Oganes

Inflation issues concentrated in US due to tariff pass-through. EM has deflationary trend allowing EM central banks (e.g., Brazil) to cut in 2026. Fed expected to cut in late January.

US inflation may peak around 3.2-3.4% during 2026; EM inflation is contained and well-behaved.
Asks if AI infrastructure spending momentum continues into 2026 or starts to moderate.

Tom McKenzie
Luis Oganes

AI spending continues. Bottom-up analysis shows $5.3 trillion pipeline over next five years (~$1 trillion/year), providing huge stimulus. Unlikely to reverse or stop suddenly in 2026.

US economy is $30 trillion nominal GDP. Bubble dynamics talk exists, but real pipeline is massive.
Asks what gets gold to $5,000 per troy ounce.

Tom McKenzie
Luis Oganes

Continuation of EM/DM central bank diversification from dollar, geopolitical uncertainty, asset manager ETF buying, physical demand. Key new factor: China allowed life insurers to invest up to 1% AUM in gold; only a fraction happened this year, more coming.

Explicitly states $5,000 is in the offing by end-2026 and can certainly see $6,000 by 2028/29.

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