Robert Kaplan discusses the Fed's new leadership under Kevin Warsh, predicting a shift away from forward guidance (dot plot) toward patience and flexibility. He highlights a structural AI-driven CapEx boom causing sticky inflation, offset by potential disinflation from oil price declines and AI adoption. He sees the Fed as likely to hold rates steady to assess the impact of lower oil prices on inflation.
implicit
implicit
explicit
Metals
inferred
AI/CapEx (data center demand) up
Goldman Sachs
9.0
Investment Bank $2500.00B
Robert Kaplan 9.0
Investment Bank $2500.00B
Robert Kaplan 9.0
US rates; US 10y; DXY
6/17/2026 6:24:11 PM
dxy
No direct mention of the dollar. The Fed's patience and sticky inflation could keep the dollar rangebound in the near term.
ndx
Kaplan highlights a massive AI-driven CapEx boom and adoption cycle, with clients raising capital and transforming businesses. This structural growth story supports a long-term bullish view on tech-heavy NDX.
rut
The CapEx boom and AI adoption could benefit smaller companies in the RUT, but labor constraints and sticky inflation may temper gains.
wti
the Strait of Hormuz being open oil prices going down, that'll definitely help
| 5/19/2026 3:31:58 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -10.24% | -5.12% |
| 4/29/2026 1:16:02 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -6.48% | -6.48% |
| 4/25/2026 1:12:14 AM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +12.75% | +6.38% |
| 3/27/2026 9:31:06 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/24/2026 3:04:57 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +1.06% |
| 3/24/2026 8:45:15 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +1.06% |
| 3/20/2026 4:06:06 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +25.10% |
| 3/18/2026 10:29:20 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 1/30/2026 6:19:23 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +6.71% | -3.36% |
| 1/13/2026 10:26:30 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +1.92% | -1.92% |
| 12/19/2025 7:26:29 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | +2.57% | -2.57% |
| 11/26/2025 10:19:54 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.35% | +2.67% |
| 10/31/2025 3:16:06 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | -3.62% | +3.62% |
| 9/29/2025 2:12:26 PM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.09% | +1.09% |
yields
Kaplan describes sticky inflation due to CapEx boom and labor constraints, which would typically push yields higher. However, he also expects Fed patience and potential disinflation from oil, suggesting a cautious upward bias.
