Fed's in line for another cut in December, says Goldman Sachs' Jonny Fine

Yields cautious down , medium term, interviewee explicit

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NDX up , long term, interviewee implicit

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Goldman Sachs 9.0
Investment Bank $2500.00B
Jonny Fine 9.0

Fed's in line for another cut in December, says Goldman Sachs' Jonny Fine

yields

I think we'll get a reaffirmation that there'll be a cut again in December... So I think in line for another cut in December, at which point I think the Fed will want to take stock and see how things look early in the new year. The interviewee explicitly expects a Fed rate cut in December implying yields will move down cautiously over the medium term, but also notes uncertainty beyond that with a possible pause, indicating cautious sentiment.

10/28/2025 6:42:40 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.60%	-0.80%
10/28/2025 1:59:32 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.18%	-0.59%
10/24/2025 6:55:30 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+3.40%	-1.70%
10/15/2025 9:58:39 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+4.55%	-2.28%
10/7/2025 1:51:58 PM	short term up	5 days later	-1.89%	-1.89%
9/29/2025 2:12:26 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.34%	-0.17%
9/16/2025 4:19:00 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.25%	-0.63%
9/11/2025 1:30:06 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.37%	-0.18%
9/9/2025 10:35:22 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.05%	-0.02%
9/5/2025 6:25:27 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+2.35%	-1.17%
9/3/2025 7:20:32 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-2.44%	+1.22%
9/2/2025 1:47:03 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-3.92%	-5.88%
8/12/2025 11:12:01 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+2.43%	-1.22%
8/6/2025 7:05:41 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.14%	+0.07%
8/1/2025 6:12:49 PM	short term down	7 days later	+1.74%	-1.74%

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Let's talk to Goldman Sachs, his head of the best one credit Johnny Finne. Nice to have you back here post nine. Great to be here. We get 25, what else do you think we get in terms of a sense is to wear things stand for the year ahead?

Host
Johnny Fine

I think we'll get a reaffirmation that there'll be a cut again in December. I think you'll hear that in the press conference. I don't think there's anything that we've learned about the real economy of the labor market that changes the summary of economic projections that we got in the last Fed meeting. So I think in line for another cut in December, at which point I think the Fed will want to take stock and see how things look early in the new year. And my perspective is that I actually think things are going to look very, very good. I'm pretty bullish as to what the growth outlook is for 2026. So it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Fed's on hold for a more protracted period of time, as opposed to the two cuts that are priced in by next summer.
Is it possible that we have a decent growth outlook but not a particularly good employment outlook? You know, we've sat here the last few days talking about significant layoffs at companies just at the beginning of sort of trying to understand what AI is impacting in terms of job growth. How does that set up for next year?

Host
Johnny Fine

So that's the big question. Are we going to see a divergence or an ongoing divergence? Between growth and the labor market. And I think the reality is that what we're seeing right now in the labor market is companies pre-positioning for future efficiencies and productivity gains that will come on the back of AI, as opposed to making layoffs as a function of AI-related technologies that can be adopted today. At the same time, as I think growth will take off in a more pronounced way as we get into 2026, I have to believe that that's going to drag the labor market with it. Maybe not quite to the same degree as we would have seen in prior years, as I think that that CEO corporate mindset with regards to hiring will still be intact, but I think it will improve the quality of the labor market nonetheless.
You want to crack at cockroaches in contagion? What's been you're thinking behind some of those comments recently?

Host
Johnny Fine

So with respect to where we are in the credit market, we've been in the golden era of credit for a couple years now. When you get to this level of where we are in spreads, there are undeniably going to be some issues that we find under the surface. And you've seen obviously a couple of high-profile defaults. You're starting to see some strains in the lower end of the US consumer particularly around subprime. So unsurprising that we're going to start to see a little bit of a noise at the lower quality end of the spectrum. But the fact that that would create broad contagion to the banking sector or other parts of the market, to me, I think those are somewhat far-fetched. At the same time, they clearly warrant watching. And if I'm looking at where we are in the spread market today, it makes me feel like we're priced for a really good thing, writ large. And I would say there probably is a little bit of risk to the downside, but I don't think that we're near the point of having broad-based contagion.
And what are some of the key parts of your expectations for further growth and increased growth next year as largely rate related or other things?

Host
Johnny Fine

I think it's really going to be driven by the ongoing flywheel around the AI system and the capex and attendant growth that that will create around infrastructure, around construction, and around all of the other associated industries. I think that will continue to be a huge driver of economic growth in the US.

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