Buy short-dated TIPs if you are worried about inflation, says BlackRock's Laipply

The Fed under new chair Kevin Warsh is shifting from forward guidance to data-dependence. Oil prices down 30% and potential Iran deal ease inflation fears, but labor market concentration and tight credit spreads require caution. Real yields are attractive; short-dated TIPS and multi-sector income funds offer opportunities. Tax-exempt munis provide value vs. taxable bonds.

Yields sideways , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

NDX

RUT cautious up

Oil down , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Metals

USD

short-dated TIPS up

BlackRock 9.5
Asset Manager $10500.00B
Steve Laipply 9.5

Buy short-dated TIPs if you are worried about inflation, says BlackRock's Laipply

TIPS; US 10y; WTI; CPI

rut

George mentions corporate America is very profitable and credit spreads are tight for good reason, implying a supportive environment for small caps (RUT) over the medium term, though caution is warranted due to tight spreads.

wti

Oil prices are down 30% from the highs and falling.

7 calls

+4

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

6/5/2026 4:32:53 PM	short term up	7 days later	-11.56%	-11.56%
5/28/2026 3:47:04 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+9.91%	+14.87%
3/26/2026 5:23:08 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+0.48%	+0.72%
3/12/2026 3:12:31 PM	short term up	5 days later	-2.42%	-2.42%
3/2/2026 3:06:31 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+21.92%	+10.96%
1/6/2026 1:09:12 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+11.43%	-5.72%
8/5/2025 2:33:26 AM	short term down	5 days later	-0.61%	+0.61%

Show all 7 wti results

yields

George and Steve both note that the Fed is data-dependent and may sit tight; real yields have risen but implied inflation has fallen, suggesting yields may stabilize near current levels in the near term.

The macro picture includes ongoing Middle East war, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, and rate trajectory considerations.

Dom
George

The Fed is shifting from forward guidance to data-dependence; oil prices down 30% and potential Iran agreement could allow the Fed to sit tight, but uncertainty premium is now in the market.

The old regime looked at oil and inflation; the new regime under Warsh lacks forward guidance and is tethered to data. Data could improve quickly, allowing the Fed to hold steady.
US economy resilience and growth story outside inflation also matter for fixed-income complexity.

Dom
Steve

Real yields reflect AI-driven growth, but labor market is concentrated (90% growth in healthcare, govt, leisure). Breakeven inflation has plummeted, making the Fed's calculation complex.

Near-term inflation concern from energy may be abating, but softening labor market and concentrated growth create a dilemma. Short-dated TIPS are attractive if inflation remains a worry.
How should investors navigate the balance of data and the Fed's new focus under Warsh?

Dom
Steve

The Fed will use multiple tools (balance sheet, etc.) and more nuance; real rates have risen while implied inflation fell sharply, signaling market expectations. Income is attractive at current yield levels.

Transition from forward guidance to big data means looking beyond headline prints. Short-dated TIPS are a good hedge. Overall, investors are looking past volatility to attractive income.
Opportunities range from taxable to tax-free, investment grade to high yield, and floating rate securities.

Dom
George

Real yield is key; incremental duration extension works, front-end curve is steep. Credit spreads are tight but justified by corporate profitability. Tax-exempt munis offer value vs. taxable bonds.

Modest inflation is a tailwind for creditworthiness; we're in a credit supercycle. Maximum income with incremental duration extension, no need to be aggressive. Munis provide more yield, less credit risk, strong technicals.
Ask Steve if he sees similar opportunities.

Dom
Steve

Bond ETF flows are up 60% YoY, mostly into treasuries and multi-sector income funds. Real yields are an opportunity; focus on income per unit of duration (e.g., BINC).

Flows confirm the income story is robust and enduring. Getting a bit more duration but still focusing on income is the sweet spot.

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