PIMCO's Schneider: Great Plains of Opportunity with Hidden Risks (with Romain Bostick; Katie Greifeld)

Schneider sees a period of opportunity but with hidden risks: medium-term inflation, unknown cost of capital, and AI endpoint uncertainty. The Fed will likely stay on hold for several meetings. He advises moving out of cash into the front end of the yield curve (5-7% returns) with diversification across fixed-income sectors to mute volatility while capturing equity-like returns.

Yields sideways , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX cautious up , medium term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

PIMCO 8.5
Asset Manager $2100.00B
Jerome Schneider 9.0

PIMCO's Schneider: Great Plains of Opportunity with Hidden Risks (with Romain Bostick; Katie Greifeld)

ndx

Schneider advises moving out of cash into fixed income producing 5-7% returns, suggesting a cautious positive view on risk assets over the medium term, but with emphasis on diversification and volatility management.

yields

The Federal Reserve is probably going to be more on its hands over the course of the next several meetings, rather than reacting proactively to this inflationary forecast.

19 calls

+0

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

6/17/2026 8:14:57 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+0.94%	+0.47%
6/12/2026 3:31:49 PM	short term up	7 days later	+0.90%	+0.90%
5/18/2026 9:01:25 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-2.46%	-1.23%
4/16/2026 6:03:07 PM	long term up	60 days later	+4.29%	+4.29%
4/6/2026 10:30:45 PM	short term cautious up	6 days later	-1.06%	-0.53%
3/25/2026 12:26:08 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-3.03%	+1.52%
11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+2.45%	-1.23%
11/12/2025 4:29:08 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-1.34%	+0.67%
11/5/2025 12:18:17 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-2.32%	+1.16%
10/24/2025 5:08:46 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+2.73%	-1.36%
10/15/2025 10:59:52 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+4.55%	-2.28%
10/2/2025 6:11:21 PM	medium term sharp down	20 days later	-3.11%	+4.66%
9/30/2025 9:58:43 PM	short term up	5 days later	+1.36%	+1.36%
9/17/2025 10:02:22 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.19%
9/16/2025 9:04:34 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	+1.64%	-2.47%
9/12/2025 11:53:46 AM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+3.17%	-1.59%
9/11/2025 5:44:45 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.66%	-0.33%
8/22/2025 6:06:13 PM	short term down	8 days later	+0.05%	-0.05%
8/12/2025 10:24:43 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	+2.43%	-3.65%

Show all 19 yields results

Introduces the balance between opportunities and hidden risks, asking where the hidden risks are.

Romain Bostick
Jerome Schneider

There is an increase in the cost of capital and demand for capital from both public and private sectors (AI capex, debt financing). Investors are in an odd period of great opportunity but with unknown risks lurking: inflation, unknown cost of capital, and the endpoint for AI.

Compares the current environment to the 1800s diaspora of the United States: great open spaces (opportunities) with unknown risks in the grasslands.
Asks about the energy component of inflation, specifically oil and gas prices from the Iran situation, and the BIS concern about energy inflation from AI buildout.

Romain Bostick
Jerome Schneider

Energy prices have come down and may take longer to be removed from the marketplace. Longer term, there is a tension: while wage pressures aren't the issue, inflation won't return to 2% target quickly—it may take several years. The Fed will likely be on its hands over the next several meetings rather than reacting proactively.

Investors need to look at the longer-term lens, understanding where growth comes into the equation in addition to inflation.
Points out that money market funds are at $7.9 trillion and T-bills are the hot ticket. Asks if going into cash is the right impulse.

Katie Greifeld
Jerome Schneider

Disagrees with the cash impulse. The key factor is purchasing power preservation against inflation above 3%. If you're in cash earning ~3% and the Fed cuts, you underperform in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms. PIMCO believes the Fed is on hold for the remainder of the year, so cash earns less than inflation.

Encourages moving to the short-term fixed-income space producing 5-7% nominal returns, calibrated to the potential that the Fed outlook might change, reflecting growth in 2027-2028.
Asks how conversations go with clients about stepping out to get 5% versus staying at 3% with no risk.

Katie Greifeld
Jerome Schneider

A lot of money market fund growth is organic compounding and a holding place for capital raised for AI pursuits. Clients sensitive to purchasing power and forward obligations (retirement, manufacturing plants) are looking to move out of cash into the front end of the yield curve to pick up 100-200 basis points.

Strongly suggests diversifying across industry groups and categories (corporate bonds, asset-backed securities, agency mortgages) to mute price volatility. Fixed income is the way to mute volatility while still producing equity-like returns.

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