The bond market is a chop-fest. New Fed Chair Warsh wants to cut, but solid growth and sticky inflation mean the FOMC will force a prolonged hold. Real rates near 3% are tempting for long-term players, but short-term conviction is zero. The key variable is Iran; a persistent conflict puts a floor under yields and sends WTI to $150, making 4% CPI a real possibility. Fading bond rallies is the tactical play until the geo-risk premium collapses.
implicit
NDX
explicit
Metals
USD
Federal Reserve
9.0
Central Bank
Kevin Warsh 7.0
Central Bank
Kevin Warsh 7.0
5/21/2026 7:50:07 PM
wti
Our commodity folks are looking for oil to shoot up to 150 if this kind of period persists.
| 5/21/2026 12:18:28 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -9.20% | -9.20% |
| 5/15/2026 9:33:59 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -15.98% | -7.99% |
| 5/14/2026 6:15:43 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -6.79% | -6.79% |
| 5/12/2026 11:55:09 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 5/12/2026 8:03:12 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 5/7/2026 8:36:03 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 5/7/2026 8:22:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 3/23/2026 3:29:56 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +7.29% | +7.29% |
| 3/23/2026 3:17:02 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +11.40% |
| 3/20/2026 5:36:27 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/20/2026 4:29:36 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/19/2026 12:11:26 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -12.21% |
| 3/18/2026 11:29:30 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -5.91% |
| 3/18/2026 9:30:00 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/18/2026 8:57:23 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/9/2026 4:35:07 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/5/2026 5:39:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 3/5/2026 4:38:35 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 9/23/2025 11:29:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.37% | -2.37% |
| 9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.45% | +3.45% |
| 8/28/2025 10:35:20 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.06% | +0.06% |
| 8/20/2025 10:17:30 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.43% |
yields
The longer the Iran issue remains unresolved, the more upward pressure on rates.
