The Fed's hike option is officially live. Minutes reveal a material hawkish shift, with multiple officials flagging a rate-hike scenario if inflation persists. The easing bias is dead. Key drivers are geopolitical risks keeping oil elevated and the fear of unmoored inflation expectations. Notably, the Fed is now explicitly flagging financial stability risks from private credit and hedge fund leverage, signaling concern over second-order effects of tight policy.
implicit
inferred
explicit
inferred
inferred
private credit cautious down
Federal Reserve
9.4
Central Bank
Mike McKee 7.0
Central Bank
Mike McKee 7.0
5/21/2026 12:18:28 AM
wti
Almost all participants noted risk that Middle East conflict could persist, keeping oil prices elevated for longer than expected.
| 5/12/2026 11:55:09 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 5/12/2026 8:03:12 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 5/7/2026 8:36:03 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 5/7/2026 8:22:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 4/30/2026 1:27:38 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -3.36% |
| 4/29/2026 9:59:50 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/29/2026 8:25:38 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/22/2026 1:15:04 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +4.26% | +6.38% |
| 4/21/2026 10:56:53 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +5.50% |
| 4/21/2026 10:53:54 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +5.50% |
| 4/21/2026 9:02:49 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +3.67% |
| 3/23/2026 3:29:56 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +7.29% | +7.29% |
| 3/23/2026 3:17:02 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +11.40% |
| 3/20/2026 5:36:27 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/20/2026 4:29:36 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/19/2026 12:11:26 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -12.21% |
| 3/18/2026 11:29:30 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -5.91% |
| 3/18/2026 9:30:00 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/18/2026 8:57:23 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/9/2026 4:35:07 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/5/2026 5:39:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 3/5/2026 4:38:35 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 9/23/2025 11:29:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.37% | -2.37% |
| 9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.45% | +3.45% |
| 8/28/2025 10:35:20 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.06% | +0.06% |
| 8/20/2025 10:17:30 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.43% |
