Markets are pricing some risk but expect oil to revert to $80-90 by mid-summer, betting on de-escalation. Strategy hinges on structural advantages: AI-driven tech, European defense, and energy sufficiency. Prolonged high oil is the key risk, potentially triggering demand destruction and growth revisions. Fed easing is pushed out, contingent on sustained conflict and deteriorating growth, not base case stagflation.
Yields
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
BNP Paribas 8.5
Investment Bank $600.00B
Ecaterina Begos 8.5
Market Strategy Amid Geopolitical Risk (with Paul Allen)
4/20/2026 9:07:28 AM
ndx
Places like tech supported by this AI capital expenditure have benefited from that structural advantage and have rerated by a high amount... I expect to be supported because of that investment and deployment into the AI. Identifies AI-driven tech as a structural growth theme that has outperformed during volatility and is expected to sustain performance.
5 calls
+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
2/6/2026 8:39:04 AM medium term cautious down 21 days later -1.09% +0.55%
12/1/2025 1:30:08 PM short term cautious up 6 days later +0.28% +0.14%
11/10/2025 2:01:10 PM medium term up 20 days later -0.75% -0.75%
10/31/2025 1:03:58 PM short term up 7 days later -1.39% -1.39%
10/20/2025 4:18:21 PM medium term up 20 days later +1.93% +1.93%
Show all 5 ndx results
wti
markets are still operating under assumptions that oil will revert to anywhere between 80 to 90 somewhere by the middle of the summer The CIO's base case is for de-escalation and a mean reversion in oil prices from current elevated levels (~$95) down to $80-90.
6 calls
+2
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
12/22/2025 2:27:08 PM medium term up 20 days later +1.92% +1.92%
8/19/2025 2:08:23 PM short term down 5 days later +2.52% -2.52%

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