AI is inflationary and will boost jobs (with Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern)

Slok argues there is zero evidence of job losses from AI; instead, business formation is exploding, creating more jobs. The AI boom will be inflationary in the initial build-out phase due to semiconductor, energy, and labor costs. The Fed faces a challenge with inflation at 3% and a strong labor market, increasing the likelihood of rate hikes.

Yields up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX up , medium term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT

Oil cautious up , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

Metals

USD

Apollo 9.0
Asset Manager $671.00B
Torsten Slok 9.0

AI is inflationary and will boost jobs (with Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern)

ndx

Slok describes the AI boom as a strong tailwind that is not sensitive to interest rates, implying continued strength in tech and AI-related equities.

wti

Slok cites higher energy prices as an upward pressure on inflation, suggesting oil prices remain elevated.

yields

All of those things would argue for the risk to the upside, namely the rates are going to stay higher for longer.

10 calls

+4

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

5/5/2026 6:12:22 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+1.24%	+0.62%
4/3/2026 7:31:50 PM	medium term up	21 days later	+0.02%	+0.02%
3/27/2026 8:49:47 PM	medium term up	21 days later	-2.12%	-2.12%
3/27/2026 7:30:29 PM	medium term up	21 days later	-2.12%	-2.12%
12/23/2025 11:03:06 PM	long term up	61 days later	-2.59%	-2.59%
10/28/2025 5:15:14 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+1.60%	+0.80%
10/13/2025 6:26:53 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+2.09%	+1.04%
10/9/2025 2:13:08 AM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+1.04%	+1.56%
8/29/2025 2:18:36 PM	short term sharp down	6 days later	-5.40%	+8.10%
8/15/2025 11:30:11 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-6.80%	+3.40%

Show all 10 yields results

What do people get wrong about AI and jobs?

Jonathan Ferro
Torsten Slok

It's not only about individual companies, it's what's happening at the macro level. It's become much easier to open a business. The number of founders of new businesses is exploding higher. A lot of these businesses will result in a lot more jobs.

There were a lot of people beginning to talk about within one year's time we will already have layoffs. Here we are with ADP on a weekly basis for the last eight weeks producing 30,000 to 40,000 jobs every week. ISM has gone up. This economy really is on fire.
Job growth is in construction, manufacturing, and healthcare, not in finance or media. How do you square those two ideas?

Lisa Abramowicz
Torsten Slok

If you look at the unemployment rate for people between 20 and 24 years old, that has exactly gone down in the last six months. It is not the case that young people can't find a job. They may not be getting the job they wanted, but young people are actually doing really well.
Do you think the Federal Reserve has been undergoing a stress test?

Annmarie Hordern
Torsten Slok

It is clear that they will have new leadership. It is noteworthy that the outgoing chair does bring up issues not just in the 11th hour but a few minutes after midnight. This discussion around let's give the new Fed chair a chance and he can run with it, which he will do in a very good way.
Kevin Warsh was hopeful we would see the disinflation push toward this technology. What do you stand on that?

Jonathan Ferro
Torsten Slok

Initially the AI boom will certainly be inflationary. It's very clear when you look at semiconductor prices, energy prices, and labor. On top of the upward pressure from tariffs and higher energy prices, in the initial phase of the build-out, we should expect the AI data center build-out to be inflationary rather than disinflationary.
You're pointing to an inflationary backdrop. What do you think the Fed's response will be, given no one has the appetite to raise rates?

Lisa Abramowicz
Torsten Slok

The expectation has been the dot plot will go down and rates are going to cut. Markets and futures are slowly beginning to say there could be a hike coming. If there is a hike coming, it does not come alone. Hiking cycles are never just one hike. All of those things would argue for the risk to the upside and rates will stay higher for longer.

The Fed has two goals. The unemployment rate has been going down and inflation by the end of the year is still 3%. If you are at 3% inflation and a very strong labor market, that opens up a much higher likelihood that we will see a stronger economy. It's not only the AI boom, it's also the one big beautiful bill. Both of these things are not sensitive to interest rates.

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