explicit
NDX
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
Bank of America
8.5
Investment Bank $3040.00B
Matthew D. (Sock) 9.0
Investment Bank $3040.00B
Matthew D. (Sock) 9.0
3/19/2026 9:36:59 PM
wti
The market is saying... this is not going to be in the market's opinion a sustained increase in energy.
Points to futures curve (first month up sharply but 12-month only up $10-15) as evidence the market sees the energy price spike as temporary, not a fundamental, lasting shock that would re-ignite broad inflation.
| 3/19/2026 6:22:02 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -12.21% |
| 3/16/2026 5:06:11 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -8.40% | -12.60% |
| 2/11/2026 2:09:22 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +18.81% | -9.40% |
| 12/9/2025 3:07:36 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.87% | +0.44% |
| 10/24/2025 9:17:59 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -0.42% | -0.21% |
| 10/6/2025 2:28:34 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -3.50% | +1.75% |
| 9/15/2025 10:19:56 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | -2.91% | -1.46% |
yields
Our belief for now is that you'll probably going to get another two cuts this year.
Expects Fed cuts due to a 'slow growth job market' and a belief that AI-driven productivity will be disinflationary, mirroring the mid-90s. Argues the 2% inflation target isn't based on US financial history and the economy does fine at 3%.
| 2/17/2026 12:42:30 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.23% | +0.61% |
| 12/5/2025 12:40:03 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -1.34% | +0.67% |
| 11/13/2025 8:45:37 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.96% | +0.48% |
| 10/29/2025 1:10:31 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/15/2025 6:53:52 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +4.55% | -2.28% |
| 9/18/2025 10:17:17 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.19% | -0.10% |
| 9/17/2025 6:36:22 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +0.39% | +0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 4:38:45 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.61% | -0.30% |
| 9/5/2025 10:40:41 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +2.35% | -1.17% |
| 9/3/2025 5:31:38 PM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | -0.69% | +1.04% |
| 8/26/2025 11:54:24 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/14/2025 9:14:07 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.74% | +0.37% |
