The AI capex cycle is structural, not cyclical, with memory becoming a key part of AI delivery. Inflation has peaked and will moderate as tariff effects fade and energy prices decline. The Fed will remain on hold with a high bar for cuts, but could cut in H1 2027 as data shifts. The AI trade is broadening beyond just infrastructure beneficiaries.
explicit
implicit
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
UBS
8.8
Investment Bank $4300.00B
Nadia Lovell 8.5
Investment Bank $4300.00B
Nadia Lovell 8.5
6/25/2026 9:56:20 PM
ndx
Bullish on AI capex beneficiaries and structural memory story, but acknowledges broadening trade and shifting bottlenecks, suggesting a cautious rather than aggressive stance on the tech-heavy index.
yields
The Fed is on extended hold. The bar for a cut is high. We think the Fed remains on hold.
| 5/21/2026 2:22:06 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -1.04% |
| 5/20/2026 2:55:24 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.96% | +0.48% |
| 5/14/2026 1:35:31 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.57% | +1.28% |
| 5/6/2026 7:59:28 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.03% | -1.01% |
| 4/29/2026 8:23:42 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.59% | -0.30% |
| 3/16/2026 8:12:49 AM | long term up | 62 days later | +10.02% | +10.02% |
| 3/12/2026 2:13:06 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.65% | -0.65% |
| 12/17/2025 11:29:24 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.53% | -0.27% |
| 11/17/2025 8:30:14 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +1.19% | -1.19% |
| 11/13/2025 7:13:56 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | -0.96% | +0.96% |
| 11/7/2025 2:24:31 AM | medium term sharp down | 21 days later | -0.34% | +0.51% |
| 10/22/2025 6:37:14 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.85% | -0.93% |
| 9/16/2025 1:12:43 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.64% | -0.82% |
| 9/11/2025 7:54:53 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.66% | -0.33% |
| 9/10/2025 1:15:07 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.37% | -1.18% |
| 9/9/2025 6:42:19 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.88% | -1.44% |
| 8/26/2025 7:44:57 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.00% | +2.50% |
| 8/20/2025 5:59:24 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -6.88% | +3.44% |
| 8/20/2025 1:53:18 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -6.88% | +3.44% |
| 8/20/2025 10:38:49 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -6.88% | +3.44% |
