Private credit is 2007, Fed is trapped, buy gold and commodities (with Romaine Bostick, Katie Greifeld)

3/23/2026 10:31:11 PM	long term cautious up	61 days later	+2.56%	+1.28%
12/10/2025 11:31:27 PM	short term up	5 days later	+1.12%	+1.12%
10/11/2025 12:16:44 AM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+3.16%	+4.74%

5/8/2026 12:39:36 AM	medium term up	21 days later	+1.47%	+1.47%
5/8/2026 12:33:19 AM	medium term up	21 days later	+1.47%	+1.47%
5/7/2026 10:50:16 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+2.09%	+1.04%
3/23/2026 10:31:11 PM	short term up	6 days later	-1.14%	-1.14%
3/19/2026 12:11:26 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-1.43%	-0.72%
12/10/2025 11:31:27 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.53%	+0.53%
12/10/2025 11:14:38 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.53%	+0.53%
10/29/2025 10:16:46 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.98%	-0.49%
10/11/2025 12:16:44 AM	medium term cautious down	22 days later	+1.36%	-0.68%
9/22/2025 6:00:06 PM	long term sharp up	62 days later	-1.99%	-2.99%
9/18/2025 12:05:31 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+0.19%	+0.10%

Asks about the potential domino effects of a private credit crisis, given Gundlach's '2007' analogy.

Katie Greifeld

Jeffrey Gundlach

The mechanism is already underway: a decline in trust. Opaque markdowns (e.g., 100 to 81 overnight) imply severe underlying losses. This is endemic to fast-growing markets, like the dot-com bubble and subprime. The 'Wild West' analogy applies.

If 75% of loans are rock solid, the other 25% were marked down to 24. If 10% are bad, they'd be below zero. The lack of transparency is the core issue.

Asks who will clean up the mess (the 'Gary Cooper').

Romaine Bostick

Jeffrey Gundlach

The market will be the Gary Cooper. It will inflict pain through lower prices. The trust problem is significant, especially with retail investors in interval funds who may not have read the fine print.

Intermediaries were paid billions in commissions, giving them incentive to downplay negatives.

Asks about the 'Ides of June' and whether redemption requests will be higher.

Katie Greifeld

Jeffrey Gundlach

Virtually every hand would go up if asked if June redemptions will be higher than March. When you can't get out, it makes you want to get out more. The argument that selling public credit will spill over is not happening now—markets are near highs.

The logic may apply to the future, but it's not happening now.

Asks if we will see true defaults in private credit.

Romaine Bostick

Jeffrey Gundlach

We already are. There have been write-offs (100 to 0) and markdowns of 25%. The trust is dissipating because every firm says it's a one-off at someone else's firm.

Asks about efforts to make private credit more transparent (Apollo daily pricing, JPM index).

Katie Greifeld

Jeffrey Gundlach

It's confusing. The industry initially sold 'not marking to market' as a feature (volatility laundering). If I used a moving average on my public bonds, I'd have a much higher Sharpe ratio. The higher historical returns are mostly from 2022 when public bonds fell 18% and private credit didn't mark down.

Asks about the demand for new private credit vintages.

Romaine Bostick

Jeffrey Gundlach

I doubt we'll see a repeat of the glory days when public markets had zero yield. The machine has reached its limits with institutional investors and needs to go to retail, which sounds like a Ponzi-like dynamic.

Asks if the push for retail demand will cool down.

Katie Greifeld

Jeffrey Gundlach

I'm not sure it will cool. There will be heightened redemption requests. Some may see it as a buy, but I'd recommend against it. The first push down looks cheap, but it's a trap, like subprime in 2007.

There's an inconsistency between 'everything is fine, NAV is down 1%' and 'this is the greatest opportunity.'

Asks about the government's capacity to bail out private credit.

Romaine Bostick

Jeffrey Gundlach

I have a hard time seeing a government bailout. This is the richest guys in the world, not the little guy losing his house. To get a bailout, the problem would have to grow so large it wouldn't be possible.

Asks about the Treasury's issuance strategy and whether he trusts it.

Romaine Bostick

Jeffrey Gundlach

85% of issuance is inside one year. The big mistake was not issuing more long-term debt when yields were 1%. Long rates are up 100 bps since the Fed started cutting in Sept 2024. I think they will continue to go up, even in a recession, due to fiscal concerns.

Yield curve control is a potential tool, as suggested by Scott Bessent. I've already acted on this by swapping our long Treasury holdings for the lowest coupon bonds in each maturity, picking up yield while eliminating the risk of a coupon restructuring.

Asks about his recommended allocation (20% cash) and whether it's still his view.

Katie Greifeld

Jeffrey Gundlach

I like 20% in cash. Markets are very high. Yields will rise. We won't get rate cuts this year. I also like a 20% position in real assets (commodities, gold). I was a big gold bull and said it would go above $4000; it went to $5500. I would buy gold with both hands if it went to $3500.

Cash can be deployed at lower valuations on risk assets and higher yields on fixed income.

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