Torsten Slok argues that AI-driven data center buildout, industrial onshoring, and the 'one big beautiful bill' tax cuts create powerful, Fed-independent tailwinds for US growth. This growth is inflationary, keeping rates higher for longer. Crucially, AI exposure now dominates both equity and bond markets, undermining traditional 60/40 diversification and creating a single-factor risk.
explicit
implicit
Oil
Metals
USD
data centers (sharp up)
Apollo
9.0
Asset Manager $671.00B
Torsten Slok 9.5
Asset Manager $671.00B
Torsten Slok 9.5
6/15/2026 11:02:15 AM
ndx
The entire thesis is that AI (which dominates NDX) is a massive growth driver. However, the risk of concentration and potential disappointment creates a cautious tone. The direction is up due to the tailwinds, but the risk is acknowledged.
rut
The focus is entirely on large-cap AI and hyperscalers. The RUT (small caps) is not mentioned. The strong GDP growth might help, but the 'higher for longer' rate environment is a headwind. The net effect is likely neutral/sideways in the near term.
yields
The yield curve is not only on the upward pressure because of inflation... the yield curve in the belly is also under upward pressure because of issuance of hyperscalers... in the long end... because of issuance of treasuries.
| 5/5/2026 6:12:22 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.24% | +0.62% |
| 4/3/2026 7:31:50 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +0.02% | +0.02% |
| 3/27/2026 8:49:47 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -2.12% | -2.12% |
| 3/27/2026 7:30:29 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -2.12% | -2.12% |
| 12/23/2025 11:03:06 PM | long term up | 61 days later | -2.59% | -2.59% |
| 10/28/2025 5:15:14 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.60% | +0.80% |
| 10/13/2025 6:26:53 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.09% | +1.04% |
| 10/9/2025 2:13:08 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +1.04% | +1.56% |
| 8/29/2025 2:18:36 PM | short term sharp down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +8.10% |
| 8/15/2025 11:30:11 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -6.80% | +3.40% |
