Mark Dowding warns of a stagflationary supply shock from the Hormuz crisis, with oil elevated for 6 months and US inflation heading to 4%, keeping the Fed on hold through 2026. Europe faces unavoidable recession if the strait isn't reopened in a month. He favors inflation-linked bonds, sees USD strength on US resilience, and warns European equities are mispriced for recession risk.
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RBC Capital Markets
6.0
Investment Bank $1200.00B
Mark Dowding 8.5
Investment Bank $1200.00B
Mark Dowding 8.5
4/27/2026 12:42:02 PM
dxy
Dowding emphasizes a US vs. rest-of-world divergence, with the US economy more resilient. This relative strength, combined with the Fed on hold while others may ease or face recession, suggests USD strength.
metals
You are going to see pressure on food prices, pressure on aluminium, pressure on many commodities... inflation-linked bonds are the place you want to be hiding.
| 3/27/2026 5:34:28 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.98% | +2.98% |
| 10/28/2025 3:44:34 PM | long term up | 61 days later | +10.12% | +10.12% |
| 9/30/2025 11:12:00 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +2.34% | +3.50% |
| 9/2/2025 8:04:34 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.83% | +0.83% |
ndx
Dowding says the S&P can trade relatively well on strong US earnings, but he warns that higher bond yields and no rate cuts challenge valuations. He does not forecast a sharp down move for tech, but sees headwinds.
rut
Dowding warns of recession in Europe and stagflation globally. Small-cap and domestic-focused indices like the Russell 2000 are typically more sensitive to economic weakness and higher energy costs.
wti
Oil prices will stay elevated for the next six months... even if you end up with an end to the Hormuz crisis, you're only going back to somewhere between 70 and 80 on oil.
| 4/27/2026 7:46:28 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +8.74% | -4.37% |
| 10/31/2025 2:33:08 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -1.51% | +0.75% |
| 10/23/2025 10:52:12 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.66% | -1.66% |
| 10/10/2025 6:48:02 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -3.41% | -1.70% |
| 10/3/2025 1:27:51 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -3.44% | +1.72% |
yields
US rates are going nowhere for the foreseeable... we think inflation in the US is going to go up towards four... you're not going to be talking about rate cuts until into 2027.
| 4/24/2026 9:54:32 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +6.62% | +3.31% |
| 4/13/2026 9:11:49 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +4.46% | +4.46% |
| 3/30/2026 7:24:50 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.41% | -0.71% |
| 12/24/2025 8:45:08 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.58% | +0.58% |
| 10/29/2025 8:40:43 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.98% | -0.49% |
| 10/14/2025 1:23:21 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +0.53% |
| 10/2/2025 4:24:17 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.24% | -0.12% |
| 9/30/2025 2:00:39 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.36% | +0.68% |
| 9/16/2025 5:59:07 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.64% | -0.82% |
| 9/11/2025 2:15:18 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.18% |
