Oil, inflation, and AI investment cycle (with Dani Burger)

6/18/2026 11:04:53 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-8.10%	+4.05%
6/18/2026 5:57:53 PM	short term down	5 days later	-8.10%	+8.10%
4/23/2026 6:43:55 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+13.22%	+6.61%

Notes the remarkable round trip in oil prices despite initial warnings about physical market constraints.

Dani Burger

Anastasia Amoroso

Oil concerns didn't play out. JP Morgan's commodities team attributes most adjustment to demand moving lower, not inventory drawdowns. The bulk of adjustment came from falling demand for jet fuel out of Asia. Strait of Hormuz flows are rebounding quickly - at 75% of pre-war levels, could reach 90% by summer end.

Strategic petroleum reserves were released but OECD inventories weren't tapped as much as experts expected. Inventories are not as low as they could have been.

Asks if oil prices could drop further if supply comes back online and demand is lower than expected.

Dani Burger

Anastasia Amoroso

Potentially yes. The market was supposed to be in surplus this year but the opposite happened. Month-by-month data shows expectations of building inventories again, flipping to surplus in August. Producers will maximize volumes/output, potentially leading to further oil price drops into 2027.

Asks about market leadership shifting given the dynamic where Micron gains 60% while Apple falls 6% on the same story.

Dani Burger

Anastasia Amoroso

Leadership is shifting rightfully so - it's the natural evolution of AI. The bottleneck shifts as you chase different components. For investors, it's not just allocating to hyperscalers but finding the next hot spot with outsized earnings growth. Memory has become consensus, which may explain Micron's giveback this morning.

Average selling prices for semiconductors are surging for memory specifically. Unit sales are up year-over-year for high-bandwidth memory specifically.

Asks about the thesis that lower energy prices could be inflationary because consumers save at the pump and spend elsewhere.

Dani Burger

Anastasia Amoroso

Doesn't think it moves the needle much. Consumer spending didn't change much when gasoline prices spiked, partly due to tax cuts being in effect. Doesn't fully subscribe to that view.

When looking at the labor market, wage inflation is coming down, not going up. Questions why consensus thinks the Fed is so hawkish when you can peel away one-off factors like core goods inflation coming down, tariff-related energy inflation coming down, and hopefully semiconductor inflation coming down.

Asks whether falling stock prices make it difficult for tech giants to continue their AI/data center spending.

Dani Burger

Anastasia Amoroso

The market has been trying to force them but they keep upgrading capex expectations. The market underappreciates two things: 1) There is ROI on the spend - cloud revenues are growing and there's a $1.5 trillion hyperscaler cloud backlog yet to be booked. 2) AI enablement benefits other parts of hyperscalers' businesses like digital advertising, e-commerce, and social media.

To the extent credit spreads widen, companies may be less willing to tap credit markets. The bond market is a good disciplining mechanism - companies should watch their free cash flow.

Asks how closely private markets watch public markets for AI infrastructure investment signals.

Dani Burger

Anastasia Amoroso

The two are connected but there are more opportunities in private markets. Partners Group has been investing in data centers for years. The first wave of AI was about chatbots/copilots (conversational AI); the next phase is work-as-a-service and workflow automation, requiring much more data center capacity and chips.

In infrastructure, there's a big focus on power - mobile power generation, natural gas supply combined with battery storage. In private equity, you can invest in AI natives (paying big multiples) or find 'AI reinvention candidates' in heavier industries like energy, materials, industrials.

Asks about the disconnect between private market excitement and retail/wealth product flows, referencing Partners Group's chairman discussing scaling back evergreen funds.

Dani Burger

Anastasia Amoroso

Partners Group is not stepping away from private wealth (20% of business). The chairman's point was that as an industry, when outsized capital inflows potentially elevate valuations, you need to right-size them. Private equity valuations relative to public equity are at the lowest in 15 years, while portfolio company earnings are accelerating.

Partners Group has about 25 exits planned for the next 25 months. The investment pipeline includes electrification, grid services, sports investing, and defense.

Asks whether OpenAI's IPO delay spells trouble for IPOs as an exit route for private equity.

Dani Burger

Anastasia Amoroso

Wouldn't read too much into OpenAI's delay specifically. So much value accrues to investors before the IPO. For exit planning, Partners Group investigates whether public listing is the right route but also works with other sponsors and strategic corporate acquirers.

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