Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group argues that the relationship between gold/silver prices and interest rates is not simplistic. While negative real rates are broadly supportive, the correlation is only -27%. Currently, short-term weakness in metals is due to ETF and coin selling, but rising inflation and political risks should drive prices higher by September. Platinum and palladium face greater downside risk due to industrial demand weakness.
implicit
NDX
RUT
Oil
explicit
USD
palladium cautious down
CPM Group
6.0
Trade Association
Jeffrey Christian 7.0
Trade Association
Jeffrey Christian 7.0
Gold; Silver; US rates
6/30/2026 9:30:05 PM
- Gold (current) → 4040
- Gold (short-term support) → 3800
- Silver (current, $/oz) → 60
- Silver (short-term support, $/oz) → 50
metals
Palladium... trading at $1,211 right now. It looks like it may go back into that consolidation range of $900 to $1,200 that we saw in 2024 and 2025.
| 6/23/2026 6:21:22 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.16% | -1.16% |
| 6/12/2026 11:29:14 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -3.62% | +3.62% |
| 6/10/2026 11:00:33 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +6.18% | +9.28% |
| 6/5/2026 10:28:17 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +0.29% | -0.15% |
| 6/2/2026 10:33:52 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.72% | +1.36% |
| 5/21/2026 6:30:43 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -9.77% | -9.77% |
| 5/19/2026 11:14:02 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -6.55% | -6.55% |
| 5/5/2026 9:15:25 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.88% | -0.44% |
| 4/28/2026 11:03:17 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.87% | +0.44% |
| 4/17/2026 8:36:26 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -1.60% | -0.80% |
| 4/10/2026 9:38:19 PM | long term sharp up | 60 days later | -11.68% | -17.51% |
| 4/7/2026 11:13:00 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.14% | +0.07% |
| 4/3/2026 4:15:05 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +2.18% | -1.09% |
| 3/31/2026 11:52:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.47% | -2.47% |
| 3/27/2026 7:55:49 PM | long term up | 60 days later | +0.71% | +0.71% |
| 3/26/2026 10:36:06 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +7.06% | +3.53% |
| 3/24/2026 11:24:36 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.59% | -0.30% |
| 3/17/2026 8:10:23 PM | long term up | 61 days later | -6.69% | -6.69% |
| 3/10/2026 8:21:46 PM | long term up | 61 days later | -8.31% | -8.31% |
| 3/4/2026 11:49:04 PM | long term cautious down | 60 days later | -10.60% | +5.30% |
| 2/3/2026 11:26:03 PM | long term up | 61 days later | -5.98% | -5.98% |
| 2/2/2026 9:12:01 AM | short term sharp down | 6 days later | +2.47% | -3.71% |
| 1/27/2026 11:28:44 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -9.37% | -9.37% |
| 1/23/2026 11:34:16 PM | long term up | 60 days later | -14.40% | -14.40% |
| 1/13/2026 8:28:15 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.29% |
| 1/9/2026 9:46:10 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +1.01% | +1.01% |
| 1/6/2026 9:46:28 PM | long term up | 60 days later | +13.40% | +13.40% |
| 1/2/2026 11:05:46 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +15.83% | +7.92% |
| 12/29/2025 6:58:39 PM | long term up | 62 days later | +19.30% | +19.30% |
| 12/19/2025 11:20:49 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -2.70% | -2.70% |
| 12/9/2025 9:56:43 PM | long term up | 61 days later | +20.77% | +20.77% |
| 12/2/2025 10:26:11 PM | long term up | 61 days later | +11.12% | +11.12% |
| 10/21/2025 9:30:46 PM | long term up | 61 days later | +11.78% | +11.78% |
| 10/17/2025 8:59:56 PM | medium term up | 22 days later | -3.21% | -3.21% |
| 10/14/2025 12:02:53 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.22% | +4.83% |
| 10/10/2025 10:26:20 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.16% | +3.16% |
| 9/19/2025 9:15:26 PM | long term sharp up | 60 days later | +9.15% | +13.72% |
| 9/12/2025 9:25:11 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +1.47% | +1.47% |
| 9/9/2025 9:15:19 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.08% | +1.08% |
| 9/5/2025 7:05:22 PM | long term up | 60 days later | +10.48% | +10.48% |
| 8/26/2025 8:08:07 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +8.20% | +8.20% |
| 8/22/2025 8:43:34 PM | short term up | 8 days later | +5.20% | +5.20% |
| 8/13/2025 5:13:42 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +7.50% | +7.50% |
| 8/8/2025 8:04:49 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -0.68% | -1.02% |
| 8/5/2025 7:24:42 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +0.12% | +0.18% |
yields
Christian states interest rates have risen somewhat over the last year and are rising due to inflation concerns. He notes nominal rates are around 3.8% and inflation is 3.5-4.2%, implying real rates are near zero. The context suggests rates may continue to rise as inflation persists.
