Kevin Hincks discusses the imminent Iran deal (Friday signing) which is already pressuring oil and supporting a favorable macro setup (lower rates, lower crude, steady dollar). He expects new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to gradually shift policy toward a smaller balance sheet and lower rates, using trimmed-mean PCE to justify cuts. Housing starts (1.177M vs 1.43M expected) and permits missed badly, reinforcing the case for easier policy to support housing and small business.
implicit
NDX
explicit
Metals
explicit
Bitcoin cautious down
Charles Schwab
7.8
Asset Manager $890.00B
Kevin Hincks 5.0
Asset Manager $890.00B
Kevin Hincks 5.0
6/16/2026 4:30:12 PM
dxy
dollar that's basically unchanged slightly lower on the day
| 6/4/2026 4:40:40 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.12% | +0.12% |
| 6/3/2026 7:30:39 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.50% | +0.50% |
| 5/26/2026 4:30:11 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.01% | +0.01% |
| 5/11/2026 4:33:03 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.69% | +0.69% |
| 5/1/2026 5:30:10 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.54% | +0.54% |
| 3/17/2026 6:01:27 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.14% | +1.14% |
| 3/16/2026 6:01:06 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | -0.63% | -0.32% |
| 3/9/2026 3:30:01 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.89% | +0.89% |
| 3/3/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.42% | +0.62% |
| 2/14/2026 1:07:19 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.81% | -0.91% |
| 2/13/2026 10:41:21 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.81% | -0.91% |
| 2/11/2026 7:00:21 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.24% | -0.12% |
| 2/9/2026 4:30:10 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +0.30% | -0.30% |
| 1/30/2026 7:01:03 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 1/29/2026 7:00:16 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.97% | -0.48% |
| 12/15/2025 6:00:31 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.12% | -0.06% |
| 12/12/2025 11:30:18 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +0.12% | -0.06% |
| 12/11/2025 7:30:17 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.03% | +0.02% |
| 12/11/2025 6:01:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.03% | +0.02% |
| 12/10/2025 6:01:08 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.07% | +0.04% |
rut
Guest says lower rates and smaller balance sheet will favor small business and housing. RUT is the small-cap index and would benefit from this policy tilt.
wti
You see the effects on oil prices continue to work lower... crude oil is lower
| 6/4/2026 4:40:40 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.56% | +0.56% |
| 6/3/2026 7:30:39 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.20% | -5.20% |
| 6/3/2026 4:30:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.20% | -5.20% |
| 6/1/2026 6:00:30 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -2.62% | -3.94% |
| 6/1/2026 3:30:31 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -2.62% | -2.62% |
| 5/29/2026 4:00:33 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.93% | +0.47% |
| 5/28/2026 3:30:30 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +9.91% | +4.96% |
| 5/27/2026 7:19:54 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.47% | -5.47% |
| 5/26/2026 4:30:11 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +3.92% | -3.92% |
| 5/21/2026 7:00:03 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -9.20% | -4.60% |
| 5/21/2026 4:30:11 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -8.20% | -4.10% |
| 5/20/2026 3:30:13 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +2.55% |
| 5/19/2026 4:00:55 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -0.84% |
| 5/19/2026 1:00:18 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -10.24% | +5.12% |
| 5/15/2026 7:01:24 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -15.98% | -7.99% |
| 5/13/2026 4:07:44 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +9.79% |
| 5/12/2026 6:01:10 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +3.78% |
| 5/12/2026 3:43:59 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +7.56% |
| 5/11/2026 6:01:37 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 4:33:03 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +3.17% |
| 5/11/2026 3:30:59 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +3.17% |
| 5/6/2026 7:01:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.77% | +7.77% |
| 5/6/2026 6:30:38 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +7.77% | -3.89% |
| 5/1/2026 6:30:15 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -7.85% | +3.92% |
| 5/1/2026 5:30:10 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -7.85% | +3.92% |
| 5/1/2026 4:30:29 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 4/27/2026 6:00:43 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +6.49% |
| 4/27/2026 4:30:46 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +6.49% |
| 4/27/2026 3:45:31 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +3.25% |
| 4/24/2026 7:01:37 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +12.75% | +6.38% |
| 4/24/2026 3:30:34 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +10.43% | -5.21% |
| 4/17/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/17/2026 6:00:59 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/17/2026 3:32:53 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -3.77% |
| 4/17/2026 1:00:06 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/13/2026 4:31:01 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/11/2026 2:00:47 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | -9.56% | +14.34% |
| 4/3/2026 2:00:27 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 4/3/2026 12:14:01 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 3/27/2026 6:00:24 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/24/2026 6:00:01 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +0.53% |
| 3/24/2026 4:30:32 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +13.91% | +6.95% |
| 3/24/2026 2:00:29 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +13.91% | -6.95% |
| 3/23/2026 6:00:33 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +7.29% | +3.64% |
| 3/20/2026 7:58:07 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +16.74% |
| 3/19/2026 3:39:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -8.14% |
| 3/19/2026 2:34:25 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -4.07% |
| 3/18/2026 5:00:40 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -5.91% |
| 3/17/2026 6:01:27 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.50% | -8.50% |
| 3/17/2026 2:31:24 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.50% | -8.50% |
| 3/13/2026 1:00:26 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -5.74% |
| 3/9/2026 6:15:03 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/9/2026 5:30:33 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/3/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +40.40% |
| 1/7/2026 6:30:03 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 12/30/2025 10:30:10 PM | long term down | 61 days later | +24.05% | -24.05% |
| 12/22/2025 5:01:11 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.51% | -0.51% |
| 12/17/2025 4:30:43 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.97% | +3.97% |
| 12/11/2025 7:30:17 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.61% | +2.61% |
| 10/14/2025 5:34:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.29% | +0.64% |
| 9/25/2025 6:01:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -6.00% | -6.00% |
| 8/7/2025 12:00:18 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.93% | -1.93% |
yields
Guest states Warsh wants lower interest rates and a smaller balance sheet, and that housing weakness supports this case. Lower rates imply lower yields.
