explicit

implicit
RUT
Oil
Metals

implicit
Federal Reserve 9.0
Central Bank
Alberto Musalem 7.0
8/14/2025 6:32:32 PM
yields
It seems that inflation is running close to 3% exceeding the 2% target, and the Fed needs to balance risks to inflation and employment without giving specific forecast directions on yields. The interviewee expressed concern about inflation above target and downside risks to labor markets, implying a cautious stance on monetary policy that would likely prevent cuts but also avoid aggressive hikes, suggesting cautious upward pressure on yields over the medium term.
167 calls
-+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
8/12/2025 11:45:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/12/2025 11:24:12 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later +0.92% -1.38%
8/12/2025 4:25:35 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/12/2025 7:46:47 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.43% -1.22%
8/7/2025 7:17:58 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.82% +0.91%
8/7/2025 6:16:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.10% +0.55%
8/7/2025 5:34:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.82% +0.91%
8/6/2025 4:32:08 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.14% +0.07%
8/6/2025 4:30:01 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.14% +0.07%
7/30/2025 11:06:39 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.47% -0.73%
7/30/2025 9:54:37 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.47% -0.73%
Show all 11 yields results

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