Skyler Montgomery notes the market is focusing on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but inflation persistence remains a key issue. He believes the market wants a hawkish Fed to maintain credibility, and Kevin Warsh is unlikely to push back on that. He sees a broadening away from tech in the near term but not a full rotation.

implicit

explicit
RUT

implicit
Metals
USD
Bloomberg 7.0
Financial Media
Skyler Montgomery 4.0
Market resilience and Fed expectations (with Guy, Tom)
6/15/2026 1:30:53 PM
ndx
I don't think you turn away from the tech trade entirely. You're not at the bubble bursting yet.
125 calls
-2
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
6/4/2026 5:20:52 AM short term down 5 days later -1.55% +1.55%
6/3/2026 11:19:38 PM short term down 5 days later -4.35% +4.35%
6/3/2026 7:33:05 PM short term down 5 days later -4.35% +4.35%
6/3/2026 9:58:46 AM short term up 5 days later -4.35% -4.35%
6/3/2026 12:22:43 AM short term up 5 days later -4.35% -4.35%
6/2/2026 6:07:13 PM short term up 5 days later -3.78% -3.78%
6/2/2026 9:59:30 AM short term up 5 days later -3.78% -3.78%
6/1/2026 10:24:46 PM short term up 6 days later -4.06% -4.06%
6/1/2026 9:55:28 AM short term up 6 days later -4.06% -4.06%
6/1/2026 7:57:57 AM short term up 6 days later -4.06% -4.06%
5/29/2026 1:15:10 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -3.60% -1.80%
5/29/2026 6:24:16 AM short term up 7 days later -3.60% -3.60%
5/28/2026 11:30:53 PM short term up 5 days later +0.78% +0.78%
5/28/2026 1:01:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.78% -0.39%
5/28/2026 10:34:44 AM short term sharp down 5 days later +0.78% -1.18%
5/27/2026 8:38:39 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.44% -0.72%
5/27/2026 1:04:14 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.44% -0.72%
5/27/2026 10:39:52 AM short term down 5 days later +1.44% -1.44%
5/27/2026 7:43:30 AM short term up 5 days later +1.44% +1.44%
5/27/2026 12:06:13 AM short term up 5 days later +1.44% +1.44%
5/27/2026 12:03:14 AM short term up 5 days later +1.44% +1.44%
5/25/2026 10:15:34 AM short term down 6 days later +1.71% -1.71%
5/25/2026 9:57:20 AM short term cautious up 6 days later +1.71% +0.85%
5/25/2026 9:42:20 AM short term up 6 days later +1.71% +1.71%
5/21/2026 9:08:20 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.67% -0.83%
5/21/2026 6:44:38 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.67% -0.83%
5/21/2026 10:34:29 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.67% -0.83%
5/21/2026 5:46:09 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.12% +0.06%
5/20/2026 11:58:17 PM short term up 5 days later +2.19% +2.19%
5/20/2026 9:19:43 PM short term up 5 days later +2.19% +2.19%
5/20/2026 12:22:59 AM short term down 5 days later +2.19% -2.19%
5/15/2026 4:01:38 PM medium term up 21 days later +1.45% +1.45%
5/14/2026 2:29:36 PM short term up 5 days later +0.59% +0.59%
5/14/2026 10:22:14 AM medium term down 20 days later +4.40% -4.40%
5/14/2026 12:00:33 AM short term up 5 days later +0.59% +0.59%
5/13/2026 11:31:04 PM short term up 5 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/13/2026 10:10:31 PM short term up 5 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/13/2026 9:18:02 PM short term up 5 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/13/2026 5:46:04 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.57% -1.29%
5/13/2026 10:40:42 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.57% +1.29%
5/12/2026 10:17:11 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 9:45:39 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 6:29:30 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 5:44:45 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 2:49:50 AM short term up 5 days later -1.27% -1.27%
5/6/2026 7:38:13 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +4.93% +2.47%
5/6/2026 7:59:28 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +4.93% -2.47%
3/19/2026 10:26:26 PM short term down 5 days later +1.11% -1.11%
3/13/2026 6:44:24 AM short term cautious down 7 days later -1.89% +0.95%
3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM short term down 6 days later -1.21% +1.21%
3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM short term down 6 days later -1.21% +1.21%
2/24/2026 7:11:54 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.17% +1.08%
2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM short term down 5 days later +1.27% -1.27%
2/11/2026 10:51:35 AM short term down 5 days later +0.06% -0.06%
2/5/2026 6:10:54 AM short term down 5 days later +0.50% -0.50%
1/29/2026 9:18:07 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.59% +1.29%
1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM short term up 5 days later -2.11% -2.11%
1/8/2026 11:03:52 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.17% +0.58%
1/8/2026 10:04:31 AM short term down 5 days later -1.17% +1.17%
12/24/2025 8:43:44 AM short term up 5 days later -1.54% -1.54%
12/24/2025 7:08:10 AM short term up 5 days later -1.54% -1.54%
12/23/2025 7:24:06 AM short term up 5 days later -0.51% -0.51%
12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM short term up 6 days later -0.24% -0.24%
12/22/2025 2:42:18 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -0.24% +0.12%
12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM short term up 7 days later +0.25% +0.25%
12/19/2025 10:45:28 AM short term up 7 days later +0.25% +0.25%
12/19/2025 1:45:14 AM medium term up 21 days later +1.28% +1.28%
12/18/2025 11:18:27 PM short term up 5 days later +1.22% +1.22%
12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM short term down 5 days later +1.22% -1.22%
12/18/2025 8:02:41 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.22% -0.61%
12/17/2025 11:36:40 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.27% -1.14%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM short term up 5 days later +3.30% +3.30%
12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.18% -1.09%
12/10/2025 11:45:39 PM short term up 5 days later -2.16% -2.16%
12/1/2025 2:08:24 PM short term down 6 days later +0.28% -0.28%
11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM long term up 60 days later +0.83% +0.83%
11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM short term up 5 days later +0.42% +0.42%
11/25/2025 4:59:14 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.42% -0.21%
11/25/2025 5:18:20 AM short term up 5 days later +0.42% +0.42%
11/24/2025 11:41:23 PM short term up 6 days later +1.30% +1.30%
11/21/2025 1:49:16 PM short term down 7 days later +1.89% -1.89%
11/21/2025 10:59:48 AM short term down 7 days later +1.89% -1.89%
11/19/2025 1:40:42 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +4.01% -2.00%
11/19/2025 1:30:46 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +4.01% -2.00%
11/18/2025 1:29:07 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.95% -0.47%
11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM short term down 5 days later +0.95% -0.95%
11/11/2025 7:51:50 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.81% +1.41%
11/11/2025 2:03:07 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.81% +1.41%
11/11/2025 2:03:07 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.81% +1.41%
11/11/2025 1:10:20 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.81% -1.41%
11/11/2025 10:07:03 AM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.81% -1.41%
11/10/2025 2:14:07 PM short term up 6 days later -2.87% -2.87%
11/10/2025 10:55:42 AM short term up 6 days later -2.87% -2.87%
11/10/2025 10:55:42 AM short term up 6 days later -2.87% -2.87%
11/7/2025 10:12:11 AM short term down 7 days later -3.17% +3.17%
11/6/2025 11:18:53 PM short term down 5 days later +1.83% -1.83%
11/5/2025 5:35:23 AM short term down 5 days later +1.61% -1.61%
11/4/2025 2:20:08 PM short term down 5 days later -0.03% +0.03%
10/27/2025 7:25:44 AM short term up 6 days later -0.15% -0.15%
10/2/2025 9:07:28 AM short term up 5 days later +1.42% +1.42%
10/2/2025 9:07:28 AM short term up 5 days later +1.42% +1.42%
10/1/2025 10:25:13 PM short term down 5 days later -0.21% +0.21%
9/26/2025 1:25:54 AM short term down 7 days later +1.49% -1.49%
9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM short term up 7 days later -0.60% -0.60%
9/19/2025 8:51:38 AM short term up 7 days later -0.60% -0.60%
9/19/2025 7:17:12 AM short term up 7 days later -0.60% -0.60%
9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM short term up 7 days later +1.92% +1.92%
9/11/2025 8:51:28 PM short term up 5 days later +0.55% +0.55%
9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.17% +1.76%
9/4/2025 9:41:48 AM short term up 5 days later +0.83% +0.83%
9/3/2025 12:19:28 AM short term up 5 days later +0.88% +0.88%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM short term up 6 days later +2.29% +2.29%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM short term up 6 days later +2.29% +2.29%
8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -+0.00% +0.00%
8/27/2025 1:15:21 AM short term up 5 days later -1.99% -1.99%
8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM short term up 7 days later -1.25% -1.25%
8/21/2025 7:19:44 AM short term down 5 days later +0.29% -0.29%
8/20/2025 11:22:19 PM short term down 5 days later +1.65% -1.65%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM short term down 5 days later +1.65% -1.65%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM short term down 5 days later +1.65% -1.65%
8/12/2025 8:37:14 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.57% +0.28%
8/7/2025 9:54:40 AM short term up 5 days later +1.01% +1.01%
8/5/2025 10:31:22 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.91% -0.45%
7/25/2025 12:39:07 PM short term up 7 days later -0.72% -0.72%
7/16/2025 9:14:41 AM short term up 5 days later -0.08% -0.08%
Show all 125 ndx results
wti
He acknowledges the market is focusing on the reopening of the strait, implying lower oil prices in the near term.
yields
He says the market is pricing in a hike to maintain inflation fighting credibility, implying higher yields.

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