El-Erian emphasizes readiness for 'a lot of volatility this year' due to frequent shocks and lost unifying themes in global economy. While not explicitly forecasting NDX direction, the context of market opening down and his emphasis on volatility suggests volatile conditions.

higher oil price is a price that's worth paying El-Erian notes oil supply constraints aren't quickly reversible (weeks/months, not days), suggesting upward pressure, but with caution due to political and economic constraints.

those central banks in Europe that have a single mandate are going to be hiking rates While specifically mentioning European central banks, the context of higher inflation (1% higher than otherwise) and Fed staying unchanged suggests upward pressure on yields, particularly in Europe.