Mixed economic data (Empire State Manufacturing miss, industrial production slightly below expectations, housing market index weak) sets a soft tone. The big catalyst is a potential US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has already lowered crude oil futures and boosted stock prices. This reduces inflation risk and gives incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh room to discuss lower interest rates, a smaller Fed balance sheet, and a trimmed-mean inflation measure that paints a more dovish picture. The overall outlook is cautiously positive for equities and bonds, with lower oil prices acting as a tailwind.
implicit
explicit
explicit
Metals
USD
Schwab
8.0
Asset Manager $890.00B
Kevin Hincks 4.0
Asset Manager $890.00B
Kevin Hincks 4.0
WTI; US rates; DXY
6/15/2026 7:16:33 PM
ndx
You see what that's done to stock prices, right?
| 6/12/2026 2:00:09 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -0.64% | -0.97% |
| 6/11/2026 2:00:05 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.12% | -0.12% |
| 6/8/2026 4:30:36 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +5.02% | +5.02% |
| 6/5/2026 4:30:04 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +3.84% | -3.84% |
| 6/5/2026 2:00:05 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +3.84% | -3.84% |
| 6/4/2026 4:40:40 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.55% | +0.78% |
| 6/3/2026 7:30:39 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -4.35% | +2.18% |
| 5/29/2026 6:00:30 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -3.60% | -3.60% |
| 5/27/2026 3:30:10 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.44% | +1.44% |
| 5/20/2026 9:00:35 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +2.19% | +2.19% |
| 5/19/2026 1:00:18 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.63% | -0.31% |
| 5/14/2026 3:30:29 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.59% |
| 5/11/2026 4:33:03 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.24% | -0.24% |
| 5/9/2026 5:00:57 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +4.07% | +4.07% |
| 5/6/2026 6:30:38 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.75% | +1.75% |
| 5/1/2026 6:30:15 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +6.04% | +6.04% |
| 5/1/2026 3:30:59 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +6.04% | +6.04% |
| 4/30/2026 3:49:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.21% | +3.21% |
| 4/29/2026 6:30:43 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.05% | -1.03% |
| 4/24/2026 2:00:48 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +1.27% | -1.27% |
| 4/14/2026 2:01:03 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.47% | +1.47% |
| 3/10/2026 1:00:27 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.24% | -1.24% |
| 3/9/2026 3:30:01 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.21% | -1.21% |
| 3/3/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.50% | +0.50% |
| 2/18/2026 5:01:08 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.72% | -0.36% |
| 11/20/2025 7:30:15 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.11% | +4.11% |
| 10/23/2025 3:00:52 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +3.00% | +1.50% |
| 10/1/2025 5:00:02 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.21% | -0.21% |
rut
Lower oil prices and the prospect of lower interest rates are particularly beneficial for small businesses and domestic-focused companies, which dominate the Russell 2000.
wti
The US and Iran are on a path to signing an agreement that would open the Strait of Hormuz. You see what that's done to crude oil futures.
| 6/11/2026 1:00:34 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -9.53% | -9.53% |
| 6/9/2026 3:42:43 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -10.31% | +10.31% |
| 6/4/2026 4:40:40 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.56% | +0.56% |
| 6/3/2026 7:30:39 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.20% | -5.20% |
| 6/3/2026 4:30:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.20% | -5.20% |
| 6/3/2026 1:00:23 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -24.40% | -12.20% |
| 6/1/2026 6:00:30 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -2.62% | -3.94% |
| 6/1/2026 3:30:31 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -2.62% | -2.62% |
| 5/29/2026 6:00:30 PM | medium term sharp up | 21 days later | -18.82% | -28.22% |
| 5/29/2026 4:00:33 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.93% | +0.47% |
| 5/28/2026 3:30:30 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +9.91% | +4.96% |
| 5/27/2026 7:19:54 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.47% | -5.47% |
| 5/26/2026 4:30:11 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +3.92% | -3.92% |
| 5/21/2026 4:30:11 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -8.20% | -4.10% |
| 5/20/2026 3:30:13 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +2.55% |
| 5/19/2026 4:00:55 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -0.84% |
| 5/19/2026 1:00:18 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -10.24% | +5.12% |
| 5/18/2026 3:30:42 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -10.36% | +10.36% |
| 5/15/2026 3:30:02 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | -11.10% | -5.55% |
| 5/15/2026 1:00:15 AM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | -11.10% | -5.55% |
| 5/13/2026 4:07:44 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +9.79% |
| 5/12/2026 6:01:10 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +3.78% |
| 5/12/2026 3:43:59 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +7.56% |
| 5/11/2026 6:01:37 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 4:33:03 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +3.17% |
| 5/11/2026 3:30:59 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +3.17% |
| 5/6/2026 6:30:38 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +7.77% | -3.89% |
| 5/5/2026 4:37:16 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +3.14% | -3.14% |
| 5/5/2026 3:38:25 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +3.14% | +1.57% |
| 5/4/2026 3:36:16 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -4.11% | -6.16% |
| 5/1/2026 6:30:15 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -7.85% | +3.92% |
| 5/1/2026 5:30:10 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -7.85% | +3.92% |
| 5/1/2026 4:30:29 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 4/30/2026 6:01:11 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -3.36% |
| 4/29/2026 10:30:10 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/29/2026 6:30:43 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/29/2026 4:30:58 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/28/2026 6:01:12 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.65% |
| 4/28/2026 5:00:31 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.43% |
| 4/27/2026 6:00:43 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +6.49% |
| 4/27/2026 4:30:46 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +6.49% |
| 4/27/2026 3:45:31 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +3.25% |
| 4/24/2026 3:30:34 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +10.43% | -5.21% |
| 4/23/2026 4:30:51 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +13.22% | +6.61% |
| 4/22/2026 6:00:26 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.26% | +4.26% |
| 4/21/2026 6:01:24 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +5.50% |
| 4/17/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/17/2026 3:32:53 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -3.77% |
| 4/14/2026 7:15:03 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -1.84% | +2.76% |
| 4/14/2026 4:31:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.84% | +0.92% |
| 4/14/2026 2:01:03 AM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -1.84% | +2.76% |
| 4/13/2026 4:31:01 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/9/2026 7:29:52 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.47% | -5.47% |
| 4/9/2026 6:01:13 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -5.47% | -5.47% |
| 4/3/2026 12:14:01 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 3/26/2026 6:15:02 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.48% | +0.48% |
| 3/24/2026 4:30:32 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +13.91% | +6.95% |
| 3/24/2026 2:00:29 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +13.91% | -6.95% |
| 3/19/2026 3:39:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -8.14% |
| 3/19/2026 2:34:25 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -4.07% |
| 3/19/2026 12:00:25 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -0.46% | -0.23% |
| 3/17/2026 2:31:24 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.50% | -8.50% |
| 3/3/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +40.40% |
| 12/22/2025 5:01:11 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.51% | -0.51% |
| 12/17/2025 4:30:43 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.97% | +3.97% |
| 12/11/2025 7:30:17 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.61% | +2.61% |
yields
Lower oil prices reduce inflation pressure, and the new Fed chair is expected to discuss lower interest rates and a smaller balance sheet, which would push yields lower.
