Energy Analyst on Strait of Hormuz Disruption Timeline (with Tyler Kendall, Joe Mathieu)

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Oil sharp up , short term, interviewee explicit

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Rapidan Energy Group 1.0
Industry Research Firm
Bob McNally 8.5

Energy Analyst on Strait of Hormuz Disruption Timeline (with Tyler Kendall, Joe Mathieu)

wti

oil prices, I'm afraid, are going to continue marching in the triple digit range... we can go well into the mid-hundred dollar range and beyond Based on a 30-day base case for Strait of Hormuz disruption, rendering IEA stock releases and other measures insufficient. Direction is 'sharp up' due to phrases 'marching', 'mid-hundred dollar range and beyond', and context of a 20M bpd supply shock.

12 calls

+18

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

3/14/2026 12:17:40 AM	medium term up	21 days later	+20.22%	+20.22%
2/26/2026 10:22:25 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+43.45%	+65.17%
1/9/2026 10:29:38 PM	long term up	60 days later	+65.90%	+65.90%
1/2/2026 9:58:07 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+3.96%	-1.98%
10/20/2025 10:01:23 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+6.04%	-3.02%
10/20/2025 9:50:44 PM	short term sharp down	6 days later	+6.04%	-9.05%
8/15/2025 10:37:13 PM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+2.18%	+1.09%

Show all 7 wti results

Asks for the timeline to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and how long to get barrels back to market.

Tyler Kendall
Bob McNally

Based on June analysis consulting military officers, even prioritizing suppression of Iranian capabilities, the timeline is weeks. A 30-day scenario is now the base case. Many weeks of continued disruption expected.

Wishes he had better news. States there isn't a minimum level of protection for commercial tankers to enter.
Asks if oil could reach $150/barrel, doubting the impact of the IEA's 400M barrel release.

Joe Mathieu
Bob McNally

Oil prices will continue marching in the triple digits until a ceasefire or the 'iron law of economics' enforces demand destruction. Prices can go well into the mid-$100s and beyond to slow economic growth.

Acknowledges DOE releases and pipeline redirects are positive steps but are insufficient against the scale of the Hormuz disruption (20M bpd loss).
Asks if domestic producers will ramp up given price uncertainty and risk of government intervention.

Tyler Kendall
Bob McNally

Domestic producers will be cautious. After 20 years of volatility, they know price spikes signal impending crashes. They will hunker down rather than ramp up aggressively.

Says busts follow booms; they don't want to hire expensive rigs only for a crash.
Asks if $4/gallon gasoline is next given triple-digit crude.

Joe Mathieu
Bob McNally

Yes, the national average will head to $4. We could see record highs beyond the 2022 peak because we are actually losing 20M bpd now with no end in sight.

Contrasts with 2022 when feared Russian losses didn't materialize.
Asks if government intervention in futures markets is the right move.

Joe Mathieu
Bob McNally

The federal government should not be involved in futures markets. It's dangerous to bet taxpayer money. He's told the rumor of intervention is not happening and hopes it's not.

References Soros breaking the Bank of England on Black Wednesday as a cautionary tale.

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