Oil prices are surging, with June WTI hitting $120+ and December contracts making all-time highs. This sustained energy-driven inflation complicates the Fed's easing path, forcing yields higher as markets price in persistent price pressures. The market sees no near-term resolution to the geopolitical factors driving oil, suggesting elevated prices and higher rates will persist through year-end.
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NDX
RUT
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Metals
USD
Bianco Research
7.2
Investment Research Firm
Jim Bianco 7.0
Investment Research Firm
Jim Bianco 7.0
4/30/2026 8:14:17 PM
wti
The June contract went over 120 a few minutes ago and that's the highest it's been since June of 22. The December contract is making new all-time highs too. The price of oil is going to stay elevated at least through the end of the year.
| 4/30/2026 3:58:58 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.48% | -8.23% |
| 4/30/2026 12:35:50 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.48% | -8.23% |
| 4/29/2026 11:56:07 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -6.48% | -9.72% |
| 4/29/2026 11:12:18 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -6.48% | -9.72% |
| 4/10/2026 3:53:15 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/9/2026 5:24:14 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +8.80% | +8.80% |
| 3/20/2026 1:25:20 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | long term cautious down | 60 days later | +13.02% | -6.51% |
| 3/12/2026 8:50:04 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.42% | -3.63% |
| 3/4/2026 3:33:17 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.01% | +3.01% |
| 2/20/2026 3:49:52 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +7.42% | +7.42% |
| 1/6/2026 7:30:15 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +11.43% | +11.43% |
| 1/6/2026 4:06:05 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +11.43% | +11.43% |
yields
Jim states that persistent oil-driven inflation will prevent the Fed from easing, which implies that the market will continue to reprice rates higher, pushing yields up sharply in the near term.
| 4/30/2026 3:58:58 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +4.75% | +7.13% |
| 4/29/2026 11:56:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.59% |
| 4/29/2026 10:58:55 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.89% |
| 4/15/2026 5:00:11 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.09% | +1.09% |
| 4/9/2026 5:41:19 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.41% |
| 4/9/2026 5:36:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/9/2026 5:32:18 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/9/2026 3:55:52 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/7/2026 9:39:37 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.47% | +1.47% |
| 3/30/2026 5:18:49 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -1.41% | -2.12% |
| 3/30/2026 5:17:13 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.56% | +0.56% |
| 3/29/2026 4:56:43 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -2.12% | -2.12% |
| 3/20/2026 4:32:31 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.85% | -0.85% |
| 3/20/2026 1:25:20 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -0.85% | -0.85% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.23% | +0.12% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +2.59% | +1.30% |
| 3/18/2026 7:32:42 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.23% | -0.12% |
| 3/12/2026 8:50:04 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.61% | -0.91% |
| 3/9/2026 3:08:20 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +4.98% | +4.98% |
| 3/4/2026 4:03:19 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.24% | -0.24% |
| 3/4/2026 3:33:17 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.24% | -0.24% |
| 2/20/2026 3:49:52 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +4.74% | +2.37% |
| 1/6/2026 10:41:18 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.05% | +2.05% |
| 1/6/2026 7:30:15 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.05% | +2.05% |
| 1/6/2026 4:06:05 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.05% | +2.05% |
| 1/5/2026 3:34:19 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.81% | +0.81% |
| 11/14/2025 5:39:52 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -2.30% | -2.30% |
| 11/13/2025 11:11:01 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -0.96% | -0.48% |
| 10/21/2025 10:16:55 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -0.56% |
| 10/14/2025 3:56:23 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +1.06% |
| 9/29/2025 3:25:33 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.34% | -0.17% |
| 9/17/2025 1:26:35 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.39% |
| 9/15/2025 3:58:32 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +2.91% | -1.45% |
| 9/4/2025 11:05:46 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.10% | +1.05% |
| 9/4/2025 9:35:50 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.10% | +1.05% |
| 8/28/2025 4:47:53 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.91% | +1.45% |
| 8/26/2025 4:19:00 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/26/2025 4:05:31 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.00% | -7.50% |
| 8/26/2025 1:00:15 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.00% | -7.50% |
| 8/25/2025 3:41:18 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +0.45% | -0.22% |
| 8/20/2025 6:53:54 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -6.88% | -3.44% |
| 8/19/2025 5:49:35 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.49% | +0.24% |
| 8/14/2025 2:49:30 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.51% | +1.76% |
| 8/7/2025 2:21:54 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.82% | +0.91% |
| 8/5/2025 3:48:43 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +0.90% | +1.35% |
| 8/4/2025 3:58:24 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.88% | +0.94% |
| 7/19/2025 1:58:49 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -2.26% | +1.13% |
