The dollar can decline over the medium term assuming Middle East resolution, as risk-on trading and global portfolio diversification weigh on USD. Dollar-yen likely to head toward 160 in near term unless oil prices fall significantly; BOJ rate hikes to 2% won't be enough to strengthen yen. Asian FX to underperform global peers due to lasting supply disruptions, need to rebuild oil and FX reserves. Korean won, Malaysian ringgit, Chinese renminbi, and Singapore dollar better supported by AI-driven inflows.
implicit
implicit
explicit
Metals
explicit
BNP Paribas
8.5
Investment Bank $600.00B
Parisha Saimbi 8.5
Investment Bank $600.00B
Parisha Saimbi 8.5
5/7/2026 9:41:16 AM
dxy
We do think the dollar over the medium term can decline. The flow picture that will emerge, especially if we do see a resolution, will be more negative for the dollar. There will be this global diversification of portfolios that will lend itself to a weaker dollar.
| 5/6/2026 2:09:07 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.98% | -0.49% |
| 4/20/2026 6:27:30 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.48% | +0.24% |
| 3/6/2026 12:50:28 PM | medium term up | 22 days later | +1.67% | +1.67% |
| 1/30/2026 2:11:38 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.81% | +0.81% |
| 1/29/2026 9:23:52 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.97% | -0.97% |
| 12/22/2025 2:27:08 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.94% | -0.94% |
| 12/1/2025 1:30:08 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.08% | +0.54% |
| 9/2/2025 8:43:37 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.90% | +0.45% |
ndx
The guest discusses AI-driven inflows into tech-heavy Asian markets and the broader risk-on environment assuming Middle East resolution. The host notes record closes for S&P and Nasdaq. The guest's positive outlook on AI trends and risk appetite implies continued support for tech/NDX.
rut
The guest expects risk-on trading with Middle East resolution, which typically benefits small caps. Lower oil prices reduce input costs for domestic-focused companies. However, the guest's cautious tone on the deal's certainty tempers the outlook.
wti
Under a resolution outcome, we see oil prices hovering around the 80 to 85 per dollar barrel mark by the end of this year.
| 5/6/2026 2:09:07 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -6.47% | -6.47% |
| 4/27/2026 2:16:47 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +9.74% |
| 4/20/2026 9:07:28 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +6.45% | -3.22% |
| 12/22/2025 2:27:08 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.92% | +1.92% |
| 8/19/2025 2:08:23 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.52% | -2.52% |
yields
The host notes 10-year yields rallied 10 basis points on the deal news, moving from 4.44 to 4.32. Lower oil reduces inflation concerns, supporting lower yields. The guest's expectation of a resolution and risk-on supports this move.
