Mateos y Lago warns of building inflation from tariffs and energy shocks, with the Fed likely to drop easing bias and risk a hike. Oil prices could spike if Strait of Hormuz stays shut, but demand destruction only above $150. Warsh confirmation expected by May 15; he wants cuts but will face resistance given inflation.
explicit
implicit
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
BNP Paribas
8.5
Investment Bank $600.00B
Isabelle Mateos y Lago 9.0
Investment Bank $600.00B
Isabelle Mateos y Lago 9.0
4/27/2026 2:16:47 PM
ndx
Higher inflation and a potential Fed hike would pressure growth stocks, including NDX. Her view that the Fed may need to hike implies a negative near-term outlook for equities, especially tech.
wti
If the situation drags on, the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, and very quickly we start running into physical shortages and much higher prices for energy... prices will spike.
| 4/20/2026 9:07:28 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +6.45% | -3.22% |
| 12/22/2025 2:27:08 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +1.92% | +1.92% |
| 8/19/2025 2:08:23 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.52% | -2.52% |
yields
The FOMC is likely to drop its easing bias and adopt a more symmetrical posture... in the near term, we consider the risk of a hike to be greater than that of a cut.
| 1/30/2026 2:11:38 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -5.75% | -5.75% |
| 12/22/2025 2:42:18 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| 12/16/2025 1:37:05 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.67% | -0.34% |
| 12/3/2025 10:24:12 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.90% | -0.95% |
| 12/1/2025 1:30:08 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.03% | -1.02% |
| 11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +1.28% | -1.28% |
| 10/31/2025 1:03:58 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -1.66% | -0.83% |
| 9/2/2025 8:43:37 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.16% | +1.08% |
| 8/26/2025 9:07:48 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +0.92% | -0.92% |
