Asset Allocation Outlook (with Romaine Bostick, Kristine Aquino)

Yields cautious up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

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Invesco 8.5
Asset Manager $1000.00B
Alessio de Longis 8.5

Asset Allocation Outlook (with Romaine Bostick, Kristine Aquino)

yields

What is happening is more of a steepening of global yield curves through the longer end of the curve rising... Real rates are rising because of excess supply of government debt globally and because of increased productivity. This is a healthy steepening of the global yield curve. The interviewee explicitly describes the yield curve steepening due to the long end rising, driven by real rates. The tone is positive ('healthy'), indicating an expectation for yields to move higher, but the context of a 'Goldilocks' scenario and a 'holding pattern' for central banks suggests a measured, 'cautious' upward move.

9 calls

-1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

1/14/2026 1:54:47 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+2.76%	-1.38%
1/8/2026 2:35:08 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+1.34%	+0.67%
12/24/2025 2:45:53 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.58%	+0.29%
12/23/2025 1:51:56 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.48%	-0.48%
12/3/2025 9:18:48 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.90%	-0.95%
12/1/2025 10:51:32 AM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+2.10%	-1.05%
10/28/2025 3:52:51 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.60%	-1.60%

Show all 7 yields results

Asks about the structural trade of selling tech winners and rotating into names less affected by AI volatility.

Romaine Bostick
Alessio de Longis

Confirms the rotation into traditional cyclical industries, mid-cap, and small-cap value sectors. Sees this as a way to participate in broader market participation while avoiding uncertainty in AI-related sectors.

Points to market concerns around financing aspects of the AI boom, data center valuations, and creative financing structures.
Asks about the conviction behind this view, requiring conviction on the state of the economy.

Romaine Bostick
Alessio de Longis

States conviction is high. Describes a Goldilocks scenario: growth rising in US and globally, inflation coming down gradually, monetary policy not tightening (easing bias ending), and expansionary fiscal policy.

Notes this is the first synchronized global growth uptrend in two years.
Asks how the Goldilocks view extends to the bond market and the recent steepening of the global yield curve.

Specifically questions whether steepening is driven by short-end support or long-end inflation concerns.

Kristine Aquino
Alessio de Longis

Explains the initial steepening was driven by the short end coming down due to monetary policy. Current steepening is driven by the long end rising due to real rates increasing.

Attributes rising real rates to excess supply of government debt globally and increased productivity. Calls this a 'healthy steepening' that should incentivize credit creation.
Asks how the Fed's recent caution over inflation fits into his view and if it's justified.

Kristine Aquino
Alessio de Longis

Agrees central banks are now in a holding pattern, which is justifiable with stable inflation and commodity volatility. The Goldilocks scenario is no longer fueled by expectations of additional rate cuts.

Expresses high confidence that the likelihood of re-engaging in tightening cycles is very small, which combined with solid growth is a good scenario for risky assets.

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