Cooper Howard argues bond markets are signaling an inflation problem beyond energy supply shocks; despite a recent oil pullback, inflation expectations and elevated term premium could push longer-term yields higher. He expects a Warsh-led Fed to be more restrained in communication and likely on hold for now, which argues for moderating duration (below benchmark ~4–5 years) and allocating to income-producing credit (investment grade, preferreds, high yield) given attractive absolute yields despite tight spreads.
explicit
implicit
implicit
Metals
USD
Schwab
8.0
Asset Manager $890.00B
Cooper Howard 7.5
Asset Manager $890.00B
Cooper Howard 7.5
6/26/2026 7:00:36 PM
ndx
Howard notes that some inflation is coming from AI investments, implying continued economic activity and investment in the tech sector. His positive view on credit markets and the economy chugging along suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for equities, including the NDX.
rut
Howard's positive view on high yield corporate bonds and the economy continuing to chug along suggests a favorable environment for smaller, more domestically focused companies represented by the RUT.
wti
Howard suggests that even if there is a solid resolution in Iran, the market is more concerned about inflation than oil prices, implying oil price movements may be less impactful on the broader market narrative in the near term.
yields
We do see some potential upside to longer term yields from here. Our view for the rest of the year is that the ten year is probably going to trade in a range between 4 and 4.5%, but I could make the case due to higher inflation expectations and elevated term premium, and a fed that's likely to be on hold that we could potentially see higher longer term yields.
| 6/9/2026 1:00:34 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.61% | -0.80% |
| 6/5/2026 7:35:40 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.82% | -1.82% |
| 6/5/2026 4:30:04 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.82% | -1.82% |
| 6/4/2026 4:40:40 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.13% | -0.13% |
| 6/3/2026 7:30:39 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.14% | +1.14% |
| 6/2/2026 6:00:01 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.36% | +1.36% |
| 6/1/2026 3:30:31 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +2.18% | +1.09% |
| 5/26/2026 4:30:11 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.13% | +0.13% |
| 5/24/2026 4:30:31 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | -1.95% | -1.95% |
| 5/23/2026 1:00:14 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.30% | -3.46% |
| 5/21/2026 3:30:57 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.69% | +1.69% |
| 5/20/2026 6:00:24 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.03% | -2.03% |
| 5/20/2026 4:30:01 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.03% | +1.01% |
| 5/20/2026 1:00:35 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.03% | -3.04% |
| 5/18/2026 3:30:42 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -2.46% | -1.23% |
| 5/15/2026 3:30:02 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.41% | -1.41% |
| 5/14/2026 3:30:29 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 5/13/2026 6:00:58 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +4.62% | +6.93% |
| 5/13/2026 4:07:44 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.62% | +4.62% |
| 5/12/2026 6:01:10 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.17% | +4.75% |
| 5/12/2026 4:00:57 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.58% | +0.29% |
| 5/11/2026 7:00:43 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.59% | +3.59% |
| 5/11/2026 4:33:03 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.59% | +3.59% |
| 5/1/2026 5:30:10 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.81% | +0.81% |
| 4/29/2026 10:30:10 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.59% |
| 4/22/2026 6:00:26 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.72% | -0.36% |
| 4/8/2026 7:30:12 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.86% | +0.86% |
| 3/26/2026 6:15:02 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.73% | -2.73% |
| 3/24/2026 3:30:35 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +0.32% | +0.16% |
| 2/13/2026 4:30:47 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.67% | +0.67% |
| 2/11/2026 7:35:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.27% | -1.27% |
| 2/11/2026 4:30:22 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.27% | -1.27% |
| 12/11/2025 7:30:17 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.03% | +0.51% |
| 10/29/2025 5:30:29 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/24/2025 5:33:04 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.73% | +2.73% |
| 8/25/2025 6:17:17 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +0.45% | -0.22% |
| 8/25/2025 6:17:17 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +0.45% | -0.22% |
