US Treasury Debt Restructuring Risk (with Stephen Carroll)

Gundlach repositioned funds for possible US debt restructuring. 30-year yields near 5%. Some investors question value of US debt at over 100% of GDP. CDS pricing shows <1% probability of restructuring.

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Doubleline 8.5
Asset Manager $130.00B
Jeffrey Gundlach 9.5

US Treasury Debt Restructuring Risk (with Stephen Carroll)

yields

We're now issuing 30-year bonds at 6%. We can't afford it.

14 calls

+1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

5/8/2026 1:20:20 AM	medium term up	21 days later	+1.47%	+1.47%
5/8/2026 1:20:20 AM	medium term up	21 days later	+1.47%	+1.47%
5/8/2026 12:39:36 AM	medium term up	21 days later	+1.47%	+1.47%
5/8/2026 12:33:19 AM	medium term up	21 days later	+1.47%	+1.47%
5/7/2026 10:50:16 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+2.09%	+1.04%
3/23/2026 10:31:11 PM	short term up	6 days later	-1.14%	-1.14%
3/19/2026 12:11:26 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-1.43%	-0.72%
12/10/2025 11:31:27 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.53%	+0.53%
12/10/2025 11:14:38 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.53%	+0.53%
10/29/2025 10:16:46 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.98%	-0.49%
10/11/2025 12:16:44 AM	medium term cautious down	22 days later	+1.36%	-0.68%
9/22/2025 6:00:06 PM	long term sharp up	62 days later	-1.99%	-2.99%
9/18/2025 12:05:31 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+0.19%	+0.10%

Show all 13 yields results

Stephen Carroll

Debate on Wall Street about whether 30-year Treasury yields will push above 5%. Some investors question value of US debt at over 100% of GDP. Gundlach repositioned funds for possible debt restructuring.
Jeffrey Gundlach

Restructuring of existing debt holders is possible. If interest expense is $3 trillion and we're issuing 30-year bonds at 6%, we can't afford it. We're drowning here.

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