Next Mega Selloff Trigger Revealed, And It's Not What You Think

Marko Papic is currently bullish due to AI capex and a sanguine Middle East outlook, but warns of a bearish setup for 2027 driven by sticky inflation removing Fed cuts, a negative second derivative of AI capex, and a massive supply of equities from upcoming tech IPO lockup expirations. He sees the US-Iran nuclear deal as irrelevant, focusing instead on the calibrated permeability of the Strait of Hormuz. He advocates for diversifying globally away from a pure US tech focus towards energy, private equity, and sectors benefiting from AI productivity.

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BCA Research 1.0
Industry Research Firm
Marko Papic 9.0

Next Mega Selloff Trigger Revealed, And It's Not What You Think | Marko Papic

dxy

The attractiveness of US assets is going to decline over the next 5 to 8 years... you definitely did not want to own USD denominated assets.

4 calls

-4

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

3/3/2026 8:39:08 AM	long term down	61 days later	-0.30%	+0.30%
2/19/2026 10:05:30 AM	medium term down	20 days later	+1.98%	-1.98%
2/13/2026 4:51:47 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.81%	-0.91%
1/2/2026 11:51:35 PM	long term cautious down	60 days later	+0.73%	-0.37%

Show all 4 dxy results

metals

Marko recommends owning commodities as part of a 'buy something other than tech' trade in a high nominal GDP growth environment.

ndx

That's your setup for 2027... potentially a pretty bearish brew for sometime in early 2027.

1 calls

-5

slightly worse than random

1/7/2026 9:15:35 PM	long term cautious up	60 days later	-2.12%	-1.06%

rut

The bearish brew for 2027, driven by liquidity tightening and equity supply, would likely impact small caps (RUT) more severely than large caps.

wti

If the Strait of Hormuz opens... oil could be back at 60 bucks.

2 calls

+23

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

5/12/2026 12:06:07 AM	short term up	5 days later	+7.56%	+7.56%
2/13/2026 4:51:47 PM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+4.05%	+2.02%

yields

We're going to end up in a world where far stickier inflation, which then takes away the Fed cuts off the table... I think we could even see a hike this year.

3 calls

-12

slightly worse than random

3/3/2026 8:39:08 AM	medium term down	20 days later	+7.65%	-7.65%
1/7/2026 9:15:35 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.63%	-0.81%
9/3/2025 9:29:02 PM	medium term down	20 days later	-0.69%	+0.69%

Show all 3 yields results

David

Questions why Nvidia isn't selling to China and if its reliance on the US/Taiwan makes it vulnerable to geopolitical tensions.
Marko Papic

The semiconductor supply chain is extremely fragile. Nvidia isn't selling to China because China is developing its own capabilities and both sides are waiting on trade talks. There are two tech lobbies: software (anti-China) and hardware (pro-China sales).
David

Asks about the chart showing major IPOs followed by market corrections and the tweet 'Beware the coming IPO pollutes us'.
Marko Papic

The IPO itself doesn't matter, but the lockup expiration does. We have never had three companies with this much potential supply of securities. When lockups expire in 6-12 months, trillions in equity supply could hit the market.
David

Asks why Marko has an overall bullish bias despite the 2027 concerns.
Marko Papic

Currently bullish because AI capex is the only thing that matters and the Middle East conflict is likely to end in a sanguine way. No reason to short now, but getting worried on a 6-12 month horizon as inflation will prove stickier.
David

Asks about the US-Iran deal and what the oil market is pricing in at $91/barrel.
Marko Papic

Nobody should care about a nuclear deal. The Strait of Hormuz is a permeable membrane, not a binary blockade. Both Iran and US calibrate the flow to avoid a recession. A deal is just an MOU that opens the strait.
David

Asks about the future of a multi-polar world and if US institutional portfolios should be less concentrated in US assets.
Marko Papic

Multipolarity is everywhere except in institutional portfolios. The attractiveness of US assets will decline over 5-8 years, but it's not a 'sell America' trade, it's a 'buy something other than tech' trade.
David

Asks which US industries represent comparative advantage for a global investor.
Marko Papic

Picks three: 1) Energy (competitive, no geopolitical risk), 2) Private equity (venture capital globally, not just Silicon Valley), 3) Tech (America is best at it, but tech itself won't outperform; the capex enablers and sectors using AI will).

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