Post-war market outlook and sector rotation (with Yvonne Man, David Ingles)

Iran-US deal reduces worst-case oil disruption risk, enabling risk-on sentiment and potential rotation beyond AI/tech into cyclicals like financials and industrials. Tech enthusiasm high but valuations stretched; investors rotating from AI model companies to semiconductors. Korea and Taiwan fundamentals still robust with single-digit P/E ratios.

Yields

NDX cautious up , medium term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT cautious up

Oil rangebound , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Metals

USD

JPMorgan 9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Tai Hui 8.5

Post-war market outlook and sector rotation (with Yvonne Man, David Ingles)

ndx

Tech enthusiasm high but rotating from AI model companies to semiconductors; not necessarily a peak but return generation in H2 questioned.

rut

Cyclically sensitive sectors like financials and industrials could come back into fashion, suggesting potential rotation into small caps.

wti

Oil prices will probably stay above $80 for quite a long time.

16 calls

+20

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

6/4/2026 11:32:50 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.56%	-0.56%
6/4/2026 11:01:45 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.56%	-0.56%
5/13/2026 2:55:57 PM	short term up	5 days later	+6.52%	+6.52%
5/13/2026 8:05:25 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+6.52%	+3.26%
5/12/2026 8:21:02 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+7.56%	+3.78%
5/12/2026 5:23:45 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+7.56%	+3.78%
5/12/2026 12:00:24 AM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+7.56%	+11.34%
5/11/2026 6:43:48 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-9.81%	-4.90%
5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM	short term up	6 days later	+6.34%	+6.34%
4/20/2026 6:16:40 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+6.45%	-3.22%
4/9/2026 8:26:09 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+8.80%	-4.40%
3/27/2026 4:46:35 PM	short term up	7 days later	+9.26%	+9.26%
3/16/2026 6:26:04 PM	short term cautious up	6 days later	-8.40%	-4.20%
3/4/2026 8:50:44 AM	short term up	5 days later	+3.01%	+3.01%
3/3/2026 2:24:23 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+26.94%	+40.40%
3/3/2026 11:01:30 AM	short term up	5 days later	+26.94%	+26.94%

Show all 16 wti results

Tai Hui

Iran deal avoids worst-case macro scenario on oil/gas disruptions, enabling risk-on sentiment. Oil prices likely stay above $80 for some time.

It will take weeks/months for flows and inventories to fully restore. Shortages hitting Asian economies likely averted, as seen in Indonesia's rupiah rebound.
Tai Hui

Investment opportunity is no longer just about AI and tech; cyclical factors could come into play to help generate returns.
Tai Hui

For Southeast Asia, selectivity is needed due to domestic policy factors. Tech enthusiasm on semiconductors may see questioned sustained earnings growth.

Shortages in memory chips and CPUs not going away soon, but can we still see sustained earnings growth from last couple of quarters is questionable.
Tai Hui

Post-war implications: governments may diversify energy sources and change defense spending toward effective weapons like drones.
Tai Hui

Lingering inflationary impact remains, but inflation expectations haven't picked up. Fed likely stays put; key question is whether they see inflation as persistent or one-off.

Political changes ahead: UK local election, US midterms could change Trump administration's policy calculus.
Tai Hui

Tech enthusiasm is high but not necessarily a peak; investors are rotating from AI model companies to semiconductors. Mag 7 year-to-date shows only 4 of 7 up, best performer up ~15%.

Advocate broadening investment horizon geographically and by sectors beyond technology, including cyclically sensitive sectors like financials, industrials, consumer discretionary.
Tai Hui

Korea and Taiwan fundamentals still robust: KOSPI P/E still single digit. Massive market performance matched by earnings growth. Not expecting 50-100% earnings growth in 2027 but won't collapse as long as AI investment continues.

Shortage in manufacturing and pricing power of certain companies likely to be sustained.
Tai Hui

China's index performance disappointing relative to region because it lacks semiconductors and AI hyperscalers. Focus on specific sectors like AI and semiconductors rather than broad indices.

China's policy to become more independent on semiconductors and models will drive more resources and business demand into these areas.

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