Andrew Susser Rousky views the hawkish dot plot and press conference as a credibility-building exercise — 'a lot of bark so you don't have to bite later.' He notes the Fed is very divided (half see hikes, half see cuts). Key tailwind for Warsh: oil has fallen $35, and upcoming CPI prints may show headline inflation coming down, giving the Fed time without actually hiking. He sees the flattening of the yield curve as significant.
explicit
NDX
explicit
Metals
implicit
Morgan Stanley
9.0
Financial Conglomerate $1600.00B
Andrew Susser Rousky 8.5
Financial Conglomerate $1600.00B
Andrew Susser Rousky 8.5
6/18/2026 2:25:22 AM
dxy
Andrew notes that if every other central bank responds to supply shocks, you might have a weaker dollar and then inflation goes up. This suggests uncertainty on dollar direction.
rut
Hawkish Fed and higher rates typically pressure small caps. Risk assets are falling on the news.
wti
Oil has fallen $35. If the truce with Iran is longer lasting, you'll continue to see break-evens come down. At $75-76, it's easy to talk like this now.
| 5/27/2026 1:06:05 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -13.62% | -13.62% |
| 5/12/2026 6:55:36 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +7.56% |
| 5/7/2026 7:48:56 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -6.83% | -3.42% |
| 4/30/2026 3:32:46 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -6.73% | +3.36% |
| 4/14/2026 11:29:59 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.84% | -0.92% |
| 4/7/2026 11:06:33 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.95% | +4.95% |
| 3/28/2026 12:19:11 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -12.90% | -12.90% |
| 3/12/2026 10:06:31 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.42% | -2.42% |
| 1/5/2026 1:42:32 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +4.15% | -2.07% |
yields
One of the biggest flattening days we've seen in some time. The 30-year is actually down despite the move in the front end.
| 6/18/2026 12:35:28 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.10% | -1.10% |
| 5/20/2026 9:05:17 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.03% | -2.03% |
| 5/13/2026 1:42:53 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +4.62% | +2.31% |
| 5/7/2026 7:48:56 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.09% | -1.04% |
| 3/28/2026 12:19:11 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -2.12% | -2.12% |
| 12/23/2025 1:36:10 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.48% | +0.24% |
| 12/18/2025 1:46:01 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.77% | -0.39% |
| 12/8/2025 1:14:06 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.67% | +0.84% |
| 12/2/2025 9:28:55 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.76% | -1.38% |
| 11/28/2025 6:46:36 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | +1.78% | -1.78% |
| 11/25/2025 12:34:15 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +3.78% | -3.78% |
| 11/22/2025 1:57:04 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +3.57% | -1.78% |
| 11/14/2025 8:08:25 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -2.30% | +1.15% |
| 11/12/2025 1:48:25 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.27% | -0.13% |
| 11/4/2025 2:20:08 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.73% | +1.86% |
| 11/3/2025 5:11:21 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.25% | +0.62% |
| 10/21/2025 3:40:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -0.56% |
| 9/24/2025 2:05:49 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.58% | +0.29% |
| 9/17/2025 8:50:18 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.61% | -0.30% |
| 9/8/2025 7:17:58 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -0.98% | +0.49% |
| 9/4/2025 5:07:54 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.10% | -1.05% |
| 8/12/2025 6:27:35 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.43% | -1.22% |
| 8/5/2025 10:59:28 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.90% | -0.90% |
| 8/5/2025 2:12:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.26% | -0.63% |
