Metals disruption from Middle East conflict and stockpiling trend (with Jonathan Ferro)

Aluminium most disrupted (4% global production loss), tight for ~12 months; government stockpiling becoming structural bullish theme; gold demand shifting from central banks to ETFs.

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Morgan Stanley 9.0
Financial Conglomerate $1600.00B
Amy Gatt 8.5

Metals disruption from Middle East conflict and stockpiling trend (with Jonathan Ferro)

metals

this is gonna be a theme for the next few years that's actually gonna be pretty bullish for the complex Gatt cites structural factors: aluminium supply disruption lasting ~12 months, electricity constraints limiting quick supply response, and rising government stockpiling adding demand premium.

9 calls

-4

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

1/26/2026 10:04:51 PM	medium term up	20 days later	-2.75%	-2.75%
1/26/2026 6:36:26 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	-2.75%	-4.13%
12/22/2025 11:02:38 PM	long term up	62 days later	+13.77%	+13.77%
11/28/2025 6:46:36 PM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	+6.55%	+3.28%

Show all 4 metals results

wti

if anything, that downward slope is usually a bullish signal for commodities rather than a bearish one Gatt interprets crude backwardation as bullish short-term signal, indicating strong immediate demand and need to draw down inventories.

9 calls

-9

slightly worse than random

4/7/2026 11:06:33 PM	short term up	5 days later	+4.95%	+4.95%
3/28/2026 12:19:11 AM	medium term up	21 days later	-12.90%	-12.90%
3/12/2026 10:06:31 AM	short term up	5 days later	-2.42%	-2.42%
1/5/2026 1:42:32 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+4.15%	-2.07%

Show all 4 wti results

Asks about degree of disruption in metals over last 6 weeks.

Jonathan Ferro
Amy Gatt

Aluminium most physically disrupted: 9% of global production in region, lost ~4% globally due to shipping issues, raw material access, strikes.

Small imbalances matter; takes ~12 months to fix disruptions.
Amy Gatt

Macro factors (dollar, rates) also affecting metals.
Asks demand implications given 12-month fix timeline.

Jonathan Ferro
Amy Gatt

Expect 2M ton surplus in aluminium, steep backwardation disincentivizing inventory holding.

Market will stay very tight; possible substitution to steel in autos.
Asks about other regions ramping up production.

Jonathan Ferro
Amy Gatt

Challenge is electricity supply; China capped, Indonesia pipeline known but slow; US smelters sold to data centers.

Midwest premium pushes all-in price to ~$6000, still insufficient.
Asks if markets are too sanguine given inflationary potential.

Jonathan Ferro
Amy Gatt

Positioning was already long; physical premiums doubling in Europe, rising in Midwest/Japan show real impact.

Physical realities will become clearer over time.
Asks about countries stockpiling base metals.

Jonathan Ferro
Amy Gatt

More countries talking about stockpiling (EU, UK, Australia, SK); theme for next few years, bullish for complex.

Started with US Project Vault; governments now paying attention post-COVID supply shocks.
Amy Gatt

Stockpiling acts as demand, supports prices above incentive levels (e.g., copper at $12k vs $10k incentive).
Asks about gold demand below $5K.

Jonathan Ferro
Amy Gatt

Central bank buying stable; Turkey sold in March, China bought most since Jan 2025. ETFs are bigger swing factor, dependent on rates.

Gold reconnected with real yield story, limiting near-term upside.
Asks if crude backwardation is market bet on future lower prices.

Jonathan Ferro
Amy Gatt

Backwardation reflects inventory/flow needs, not price forecast; downward slope is bullish signal, indicating need to clear inventory.

Applies to metals as well.

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